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Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

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Abstract
We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing bargaining power. To that end, we document significant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as political realignments, modifications in collective bargaining rules, or the end of dictatorships, in a sample of developed and emerging economies. These policy changes are associated with significant fluctuations in output. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks cause movements in output and unemployment. To quantify the importance of these political shocks for the U.S. as a whole, we extend an otherwise standard neoclassical growth model. We model political shocks as exogenous changes in the bargaining power of workers in a labor market with search and matching. We calibrate the model to the U.S. corporate non-financial business sector and we back out the evolution of the bargaining power of workers over time using a new methodological approach, the partial filter. We show how the estimated shocks agree with the historical narrative evidence. We document that bargaining shocks account for 28% of aggregate fluctuations and have a welfare cost of 2.4%in consumption units.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 20-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:87610
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.11
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    3. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law," CEPR Discussion Papers 17369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jesús Fernández‐Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2023. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 869-901, May.
    5. Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    7. Jay Hyun & Ryan Kim & Byoungchan Lee, 2024. "Business Cycles With Cyclical Returns To Scale," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 253-282, February.
    8. Gaigné, Carl & Sanch-Maritan, Mathieu, 2019. "City size and the risk of being unemployed. Job pooling vs. job competition," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 222-238.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Redistribution risk; bargaining shocks; aggregate fluctuations; partial filter; historical narrative;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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