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Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations

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Abstract
We explore quantitatively the possibility of multiple equilibria in a model of sovereign debt crises. The source of multiplicity is the one identified by Calvo (1988). This type of multiplicity has been at the heart of the policy debate through the recent European sovereign debt crisis. Key for multiplicity in the model is a stochastic process for output featuring long periods of either high or low growth. We calibrate the output process in the model using data for the southern European countries that were exposed to the debt crisis. We find that expectations-driven sovereign debt crises are empirically plausible, but only in periods of stagnation. Multiplicity is state dependent: in periods of stagnation and for intermediate levels of debt, interest rates may be high for reasons unrelated to fundamentals.

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  • Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," Working Papers 757, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:757
    DOI: 10.21034/wp.757
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    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Seung Hyun Maeng, 2023. "The Theory of Reserve Accumulation, Revisited," RSCAS Working Papers 2013_53, European University Institute.
    4. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2023. "Public debt sustainability in a target zone model with heterogeneous agents," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 440-450.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Self-fulfilling debt crises; Sovereign default; Multiplicity; Good and bad times; Stagnation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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