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Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements

Author

Listed:
  • Taeyoung Doh
  • Dongho Song
  • Shu-Kuei X. Yang
Abstract
We apply a natural language processing algorithm to FOMC statements to construct a new measure of monetary policy stance, including the tone and novelty of a policy statement. We exploit cross-sectional variations across alternative FOMC statements to identify the tone (for example, dovish or hawkish), and contrast the current and previous FOMC statements released after Committee meetings to identify the novelty of the announcement. We then use high-frequency bond prices to compute the surprise component of the monetary policy stance. Our text-based estimates of monetary policy surprises are not sensitive to the choice of bond maturities used in estimation, are highly correlated with forward guidance shocks in the literature, and are associated with lower stock returns after unexpected policy tightening. The key advantage of our approach is that we are able to conduct a counterfactual policy evaluation by replacing the released statement with an alternative statement, allowing us to perform a more detailed investigation at the sentence and paragraph level.

Suggested Citation

  • Taeyoung Doh & Dongho Song & Shu-Kuei X. Yang, 2020. "Deciphering Federal Reserve Communication via Text Analysis of Alternative FOMC Statements," Research Working Paper RWP 20-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:88946
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2020-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Felipe Gutiérrez & Neda Tavakoli & Sima Siami-Namini & Akbar Siami Namin, 2022. "Similarity analysis of federal reserve statements using document embeddings: the Great Recession vs. COVID-19," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    2. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Ge Gao & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera, 2023. "Can central banks be heard over the sound of gunfire?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 183-203, December.
    5. Olivier De Bandt & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Julien Denes & Alexandre Dhenin & Annabelle De Gaye & Pierre-Antoine Robert, 2023. "Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France," Working papers 921, Banque de France.
    6. Baumgärtner, Martin & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker: Embedding their words using neural networks," IMFS Working Paper Series 194, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOMC; Alternative FOMC statements; Counterfactual policy evaluation; Monetary policy stance; Text analysis; Natural language processing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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