Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fer/dpaper/356.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Sulamaa, Pekka
  • Widgrén, Mika
Abstract
This paper examines the economic effects of the opening of the Russian Federation. The analysis carried out in the paper is two-fold. First we simulate the impact of the eastern enlargement of the EU and, second, we analyse how deeper integration between the EU and Russia contributes to this. The analysis is carried out with GTAP computable general equilibrium model. We find that there is a trade-off between the two roads of European integration arrangements. Eastern enlargement seems, even in its very deep form, be beneficial for all EU regions without causing substantial welfare losses outside the Union. EU-Russia integration, on the other hand, has different impact. To be beneficial for Russia free trade between the EU and Russia requires improved productivity in the latter, which may be due to better institutions or increased FDI. This might make the negotiations of the agreement cumbersome and if agreed its implementation difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Discussion Papers 356, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148333
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. André Sapir, 2000. "Trade Regionalism in Europe: Towards an Integrated Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 151-162, March.
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Widgren, Mika & Sulamaa, Pekka, 2003. "EU Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and CIS Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 3768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Sapir, Andre, 1998. "The political economy of EC regionalism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 717-732, May.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Swaminathan, Padma V., 1996. "Introducing Monopolistic Competition Into The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28704, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Vaittinen, Risto, 2000. "Eastern Enlargement of the European Union - Transition in applicant countries and evaluation of the economic prospects with a dynamic CGE-model," Research Reports 64, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176.
    8. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
    9. Vaittinen, Risto, 2004. "Trade Policies and Integration - Evaluations with CGE Models," Research Reports 109, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une théorie de la demande de produits différenciés d'après leur origine) (Una teoría de la demanda de productos distinguiénd," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
    11. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-1148, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alho, Kari E.O. & Kaitila, Ville & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Speed of Convergence and Relocation: New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old," Discussion Papers 963, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Asian Regionalism versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects," Discussion Papers 985, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Andreas Benedictow & Daniel Fjærtoft & Ole Løfsnæs, 2010. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis," Discussion Papers 617, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia," Discussion Papers 969, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    5. Susanna Kinnman & Magnus Lodefalk, 2009. "A Global Baltic:Potential Gains from Trade Liberalisation in the Baltic Sea States," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 55-79, July.
    6. Alho, Kari E.O. & Kaitila, Ville & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence in the Enlarged European Union," Discussion Papers 1156, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    7. Fontana, Marzia, 2006. "Modelling the gender effects of trade: current findings and ways forward," Conference papers 331535, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Kaitila, Ville, 2007. "Free Trade between the EU and Russia - Sectoral Effects and Impacts on Northwest Russia," Discussion Papers 1087, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Benedictow, Andreas & Fjærtoft, Daniel & Løfsnæs, Ole, 2013. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: An econometric analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 400-428.
    10. Bchir, Mohamed Hedi & Hammouda, Hakim Ben, 2008. "Does theory matters in Global CGE models," Conference papers 331807, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia," Discussion Papers 969, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Widgren, Mika & Sulamaa, Pekka, 2003. "EU Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and CIS Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 3768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Sulamaa, Pekka & WidgrÉn, Mika, 2002. "EU-Enlargement and the Opening of Russia: Lessons from the GTAP Reference Model," Discussion Papers 825, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Jaakko Kiander & Risto Vaittinen & Tiiu Paas, 2002. "The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone and Labour Market Adjustment," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp06, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
    5. Eddy Bekkers & Alessandro Antimiani & Caitlyn Carrico & Dorothee Flaig & Lionel Fontagne & Jean Foure & Joseph Francois & Ken Itakura & Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova & William Powers & Bert Saveyn & Robe, 2020. "Modelling Trade and Other Economic Interactions Between Countries in Baseline Projections," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 273-345, June.
    6. Wilhelm Kohler & Christian Keuschnigg, 2000. "An Incumbent Country View on Eastern Enlargement of the EU Part I: A General Treatment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 325-351, December.
    7. Fontana, Marzia, 2006. "Modelling the gender effects of trade: current findings and ways forward," Conference papers 331535, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    9. Kari E.O.Alho & Ville Kaitila & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Speed of Convergence and Relocation - New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old," Economics Working Papers 034, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    10. Wilhelm Kohler, 2000. "Die Osterweiterung der EU aus der Sicht bestehender Mitgliedsländer: Was lehrt uns die Theorie der ökonomischen Integration?," Economics working papers 2000-01, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    11. Busse, Matthias & Huth, Matthias & Koopmann, Georg, 2000. "Preferential Trade Agreements: The Case of EU-Mexico," Discussion Paper Series 26269, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    12. Alho, Kari & Widgren, Mika & Kaitila, Ville, 2008. "Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence in the Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 7000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:136 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson, 2018. "Exploring Long Run Structural Change with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 2018: 12, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    15. Islam, Sulequl, 2003. "Expansions of the European Union and the NAFTA: Implications for New and Non-Member countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    16. Simon J.Evenett & Mia Mikic & Ravi Ratnayake (ed.), 2011. "Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia," ARTNeT Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number brr10.
    17. Sébastien Jean & David Laborde & Will Martin, 2008. "Choosing Sensitive Agricultural Products in Trade Negotiations," Working Papers 2008-18, CEPII research center.
    18. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2006. "Who favors enlargement?: Determinants of support for EU membership in the candidate countries' referenda," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 520-543, June.
    19. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    20. Redding, Stephen J. & Weinstein, David E., 2016. "A unified approach to estimating demand and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Deniz Aksoy, 2010. "Who gets what, when, and how revisited: Voting and proposal powers in the allocation of the EU budget," European Union Politics, , vol. 11(2), pages 171-194, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integration; Free Trade Agreement; GTAP; EU; Russia; Economic growth; Taloudellinen kasvu; International comparisons; Kansainväliset vertailut; Labor market and policies promoting economic growth; Työmarkkinat ja kasvua tukeva politiikka;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anita Niskanen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vatttfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.