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The International Risk-Sharing Puzzle is at Business Cycle and Lower Frequency

Author

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Luca Dedola
  • Francesca Viani
Abstract
We decompose the Backus-Smith [1993] statistic -- a low or negative correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate at odds with a high degree of international risk sharing -- in its dynamic components at di¤erent frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques we show that, in most OECD countries, the dynamic correlation tends to be more negative, and signi.cantly so, at business cycle or lower frequencies -- the appropriate frequencies for assessing the performance of international business cycle models. Theoretically, we show that the dynamic correlation predicted by standard open-economy models is the sum of two terms: a term constant across frequencies, which can be negative as a function of uninsurable risk; a term variable across frequencies, which in bond economies is necessarily positive, reflecting the insurance intertemporal trade provides against forecastable contingencies. We show that the main mechanisms proposed in the literature to account for the puzzle are consistent with the evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2011. "The International Risk-Sharing Puzzle is at Business Cycle and Lower Frequency," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/16, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2011/16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bengui, Julien & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2013. "Capital mobility and international sharing of cyclical risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 42-62.
    2. Robert Kollmann, 2019. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 65-85, February.
    3. Devereux, Michael B. & Kollmann, Robert, 2012. "International Risk Sharing," MPRA Paper 70129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 199-211.
    5. Akkoyun, H. Cagri & Arslan, Yavuz & Kanik, Birol, 2013. "Housing prices and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 119-134.
    6. Trezzi, Riccardo, 2013. "A wavelet analysis of international risk-sharing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 330-333.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403-466.
    8. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio, 2014. "Does financial integration affect real exchange rate volatility and cross-country equity market returns correlation?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 206-220.
    9. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion & Akito Matsumoto, 2012. "International risk sharing during the globalization era," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 394-416, May.
    10. Jean-François Rouillard, 2013. "International Risk Sharing and Land Dynamics," Cahiers de recherche 13-02, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    11. Iwata, Yasuharu, 2013. "Two fiscal policy puzzles revisited: New evidence and an explanation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-207.
    12. Gogas, Periklis & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2014. "Public debt and private consumption in OECD countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 1-7.
    13. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 208-229.
    14. Predrag Petroviæ, 2016. "Backus–Smith puzzle and the European Union: It’s not just the nominal exchange rate," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 393-418.
    15. Aydan Dogan, 2014. "Euro- US Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: How Far Can We Push Equilibrium Models?," Studies in Economics 1409, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Risk-Sharing; Incomplete markets; Spectral Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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