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To leave or not to leave? A regression discontinuity analysis of the impact of failing the High School exit exam

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  • Ou, Dongshu
Abstract
The high school exit exam (HSEE) is rapidly becoming a standardized assessment procedure for educational accountability in the United States. I use a unique state-specific dataset to identify the effect of failing the HSEE on the likelihood that a student drops out early based on a Regression Discontinuity design. It shows that students who barely fail the exam are more likely to exit than those who barely pass despite being offered retest opportunities. The discontinuity amounts to a large proportion of the dropout probability of barely-failers, particularly for minority and low-income students, suggesting that the potential benefit of raising educational standards might come at the cost of increasing inequalities in the educational system.

Suggested Citation

  • Ou, Dongshu, 2009. "To leave or not to leave? A regression discontinuity analysis of the impact of failing the High School exit exam," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51589, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:51589
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lincove, Jane Arnold & Mata, Catherine & Cortes, Kalena E., 2022. "A Bridge to Graduation: Post-secondary Effects of an Alternative Pathway for Students Who Fail High School Exit Exams," IZA Discussion Papers 15067, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Brian G. Moss & William H. Yeaton, 2013. "Evaluating Effects of Developmental Education for College Students Using a Regression Discontinuity Design," Evaluation Review, , vol. 37(5), pages 370-404, October.
    3. Marcotte, Dave E., 2013. "High school dropout and teen childbearing," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 258-268.
    4. Ou, Dongshu, 2010. "To leave or not to leave? A regression discontinuity analysis of the impact of failing the high school exit exam," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 171-186, April.
    5. Jason M. Lindo & Nicholas J. Sanders & Philip Oreopoulos, 2010. "Ability, Gender, and Performance Standards: Evidence from Academic Probation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-117, April.
    6. Steven F. Koch & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2016. "Healthcare facility choice and user fee abolition: regression discontinuity in a multinomial choice setting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 927-950, October.
    7. Ahn, Tom, 2014. "A regression discontinuity analysis of graduation standards and their impact on students’ academic trajectories," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-75.
    8. Figlio, D. & Karbownik, K. & Salvanes, K.G., 2016. "Education Research and Administrative Data," Handbook of the Economics of Education,, Elsevier.
    9. Papay, John P. & Willett, John B. & Murnane, Richard J., 2011. "Extending the regression-discontinuity approach to multiple assignment variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 203-207, April.
    10. Katherine Caves & Simone Balestra, 2018. "The impact of high school exit exams on graduation rates and achievement," The Journal of Educational Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(2), pages 186-200, March.
    11. Giorgio Di Pietro, 2014. "The Short-term Effectiveness of a Remedial Mathematics Course: Evidence from a UK University," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(3), pages 363-384, June.
    12. Clark, Damon & See, Edward, 2011. "The impact of tougher education standards: Evidence from Florida," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1123-1135.
    13. Polson, Chester, 2018. "TAKS-ing students? Texas exit exam effects on human capital formation," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 129-150.
    14. Harris, Douglas N. & Liu, Lihan & Barrett, Nathan & Li, Ruoxi, 2023. "Is the rise in high school graduation rates real? High-stakes school accountability and strategic behavior," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Stefanie Dufaux, 2012. "Assessment for Qualification and Certification in Upper Secondary Education: A Review of Country Practices and Research Evidence," OECD Education Working Papers 83, OECD Publishing.
    16. Tafreschi, Darjusch & Thiemann, Petra, 2016. "Doing it twice, getting it right? The effects of grade retention and course repetition in higher education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 198-219.
    17. Åslund, Olof & Grönqvist, Hans & Hall, Caroline & Vlachos, Jonas, 2018. "Education and criminal behavior: Insights from an expansion of upper secondary school," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 178-192.
    18. Lee, Kyung-Gon & Polachek, Solomon, 2014. "Do School Budgets Matter? The Effect of Budget Referenda on Student Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 8056, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Thomas S. Dee & Will Dobbie & Brian A. Jacob & Jonah Rockoff, 2019. "The Causes and Consequences of Test Score Manipulation: Evidence from the New York Regents Examinations," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 382-423, July.
    20. Joshua C. Hall & Donald J. Lacombe & Shree B. Pokharel, 2020. "State Exit Exams and Graduation Rates: A Hierarchical SLX Modelling Approach," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 50(2), pages 189-206.
    21. Diette Timothy M. & Helms Sara E., 2014. "Trading the Television for a Textbook?: High School Exit Exams and Student Behavior," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1015-1036, July.
    22. Whitaker, Stephan, 2011. "The impact of legalized abortion on high school graduation through selection and composition," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-246, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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