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The spread of COVID-19 in London: network effects and optimal lockdowns

Author

Listed:
  • Julliard, Christian
  • Shi, Ran
  • Yuan, Kathy
Abstract
We generalise a stochastic version of the workhorse SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemiological model to account for spatial dynamics generated by network interactions. Using the London metropolitan area as a salient case study, we show that commuter network externalities account for about 42% of the propagation of COVID-19. We find that the UK lockdown measure reduced total propagation by 44%, with more than one third of the effect coming from the reduction in network externalities. Counterfactual analyses suggest that: (i) the lockdown was somehow late, but further delay would have had more extreme consequences; (ii) a targeted lockdown of a small number of highly connected geographic regions would have been equally effective, arguably with significantly lower economic costs; (iii) targeted lockdowns based on threshold number of cases are not effective, since they fail to account for network externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Julliard, Christian & Shi, Ran & Yuan, Kathy, 2023. "The spread of COVID-19 in London: network effects and optimal lockdowns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118825, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118825
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/118825/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Difang Huang & Ying Liang & Boyao Wu & Yanyi Ye, 2024. "Estimating the Impact of Social Distance Policy in Mitigating COVID-19 Spread with Factor-Based Imputation Approach," Papers 2405.12180, arXiv.org.
    2. Lindquist, Matthew & Patacchini, Eleonora & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2024. "Spillovers in Criminal Networks: Evidence from Co-Offender Deaths," CEPR Discussion Papers 19159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; networks; key players; spatial modelling; SIR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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