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Will the secular decline in exchange rate and inflation volatility survive COVID-19?

Author

Listed:
  • Ilzetzki, Ethan
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Rogoff, Kenneth S.
Abstract
Over the twenty-first century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downward, notably among the core G3 currencies (dollar, euro, and the yen), and to some extent the G4 (including China). This stability continued through the COVID-19 recession to date- unusual, as exchange volatility generally rises in US recessions. Compared with measures of stock price volatility, exchange rate volatility rivals the lows reached in the heyday of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. This paper argues that the core driver is convergence in monetary policy, reflected in a sharp reduction of inflation and short- and especially long-term interest rate differentials. This unprecedented stability, which partially extends to emerging markets, is strongly reinforced by expectations that the zero bound will be significantly binding for advanced economies for years to come. We consider various hypotheses and suggest that the shutdown of monetary volatility is the leading explanation. The concluding part of the paper cautions that systemic economic crises often produce major turning points, so a collapse of this new and extended Bretton Woods II regime cannot be ruled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilzetzki, Ethan & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2020. "Will the secular decline in exchange rate and inflation volatility survive COVID-19?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116982, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:116982
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Matthew Ferranti, 2022. "Estimating the Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," Papers 2206.13751, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    3. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2023. "Central bank independence and inflation volatility in developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1320-1341.
    4. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    5. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert, 2021. "Do currency exchange rates impact gold prices? New evidence from the ongoing COVID-19 period," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Kenneth Rogoff, 2022. "Emerging Market Sovereign Debt in the Aftermath of the Pandemic," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 147-166, Fall.
    8. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2024. "Explaining the Great Moderation Exchange Rate Volatility Puzzle," Working Papers 24-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Nhan Huynh & Dat Nguyen & Anh Dao, 2021. "Sectoral Performance and the Government Interventions during COVID-19 Pandemic: Australian Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-16, April.
    10. Willem Thorbecke, 2021. "The Exposure of French and South Korean Firm Stock Returns to Exchange Rates and the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-29, April.
    11. Klose, Jens, 2023. "European exchange rate adjustments in response to COVID-19, containment measures and stabilization policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Thorbecke, Willem & Salike, Nimesh & Chen, Chen, 2022. "The impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese chemical industry," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Willem THORBECKE, 2021. "The Exposure of French and South Korean Firms to Exchange Rates and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the Stock Market," Discussion papers 21017, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Nathan Sussman & Charles Wyplosz, 2024. "Exchange Rate Regime Choices in Small Open Economies from Bretton Woods to Inflation Targeting," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(3), pages 394-414, September.
    15. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Duygun, Meryem & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 related policy interventions on international systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Pedro M. Nogueira Reis, 2022. "Determinants of Qualified Investor Sentiment during the COVID-19 Pandemic in North America, Asia, and Europe," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2021. "Fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the great pause," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 783-793.

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    Keywords

    Covid-19; coronavirus;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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