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Trade shocks and credit reallocation

Author

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  • Federico, Stefano
  • Hassan, Fadi
  • Rappoport-Redondo, Veronica
Abstract
The effect of trade liberalization on welfare and economic activity remains one of the most important questions in economics. The literature identifies a number of key determinants that reduce the potential gains from trade, by focusing on frictions to labor mobility across regions or sectors. This paper contributes to this debate by exploring a novel channel, namely the reallocation of credit in the aftermath of a trade shock. We find that there are endogenous financial frictions that arise from trade liberalization and spillovers between losers and winners from trade that go through banks, as banks can be negatively affected by a trade shock through the portfolio of firms they lend to. Using data from the Italian credit registry, matched with bank and firm level data, we follow the evolution of bank and firm activities prior to and after the entry of China into the WTO. We identify the sectors most affected by import competition from China and estimate the transmission of this trade shock from firms to their lending banks, and the consequence of the shock on banks' lending to other firms. We find that, controlling for credit demand, banks exposed to the China shock decrease their lending relative to non-exposed banks. Importantly, this lending is reduced both for firms exposed to competition from China and to those that are not and that we should expect to expand. The main mechanism is related to the reduction of the core capital of banks, and their resulting funding capacity, through the rise of non-performing loans. We quantify the impact of this effect on real outcomes such as employment, investment, and output and we find relevant aggregate implications. These findings provide evidence that following a trade shock, bank lending has a key impact on the reallocation channel and on the potential gains from trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi & Rappoport-Redondo, Veronica, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:103422
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    3. Lloyd, Simon & Reinhardt, Dennis & Sowerbutts , Rhiannon, 2023. "Financial services trade restrictions and lending from an international financial centre," Bank of England working papers 1022, Bank of England.
    4. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Berthou Antoine, & Mayer Thierry, & Mésonnier Jean-Stéphane., 2021. "Good Connections: Bank Specialization and the Tariff Elasticity of Exports," Working papers 814, Banque de France.
    6. Federico Cingano & Fadi Hassan, 2020. "International financial flows and misallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1697, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Christian Keuschnigg & Michael Kogler, 2022. "Trade and credit reallocation: How banks help shape comparative advantage," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 282-305, February.
    8. Esposito, Federico & Hassan, Fadi, 2023. "Import Competition, Trade Credit, and Financial Frictions in General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 17926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jin Cao & Valeriya Dinger & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Karolis Liaudinskas, 2022. "Trade Conflicts and Credit Supply Spillovers: Evidence from the Nobel Peace Prize Trade Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 10036, CESifo.
    11. Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya & Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Liaudinskas, Karolis, 2022. "Trade conflicts and credit supply spillovers : Evidence from the Nobel Peace Prize trade shock," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2022, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Izadi, Mohammad & Saadi, Vahid, 2023. "Banking Market Structure and Trade Shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade liberalisation; china shock; bank credit; resource reallocation; gains from trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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