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Estimating a nonlinear new Keynesian model with the zero lower bound for Japan

Author

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  • Hirokuni Iiboshi
  • Mototsugu Shintani
  • Kozo Ueda
Abstract
We estimate a small-scale nonlinear DSGE model with the zero lower bound (ZLB) of the nominal interest rate for Japan, where the ZLB has constrained the country’s monetary policy for a considerably long period. We employ the time iteration with linear interpolation method to solve equilibrium and then estimate the model by using the Sequential Monte Carlo Squared method. Results of estimation suggest that (1) the Bank of Japan has been conducting monetary policy that depends on the lagged notional interest rate rather than the lagged actual interest rate and that (2) the estimated series of the natural rate of interest moves very closely to those based on the model without the ZLB.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a nonlinear new Keynesian model with the zero lower bound for Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2018-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2018-37
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    Cited by:

    1. Niwa, Hidekazu, 2024. "A fiscal theory of central bank’s solvency: Perils of the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    3. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2023. "The Natural Rate of Interest in a Non-linear DSGE Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 301-340, March.
    4. Iwasaki, Yuto & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2021. "Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Lee, Dong Jin & Hahm, Joon-Ho & Park, Hail & Park, Ki Young, 2020. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Atkinson, Tyler & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2020. "The zero lower bound and estimation accuracy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 249-264.
    7. Pablo A. Cuba-Borda & Sanjay R. Singh, 2019. "Understanding Persistent Stagnation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1243, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    9. Daisuke Ida & Hirokuni Iiboshi, 2021. "The international forward guidance transmission under a global liquidity trap," Papers 2103.12503, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; DSGE model; Particle filter; SMC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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