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Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!

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  • Schüler, Yves S.
Abstract
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business cycles. In particular, these medium-term filters amplify the variances of cycles of duration around 20 to 30 years up to a factor of 204, completely cancelling out shorter-term fluctuations. This is important because it is common practice, and recommended under Basel III, to extract medium-term cycles using such filters; e.g., the HP filter with a smoothing parameter of 400,000. In addition, I find that financial cycle facts, i.e., differing amplitude, duration, and synchronisation of cycles in financial variables relative to cycles in GDP, are robust. For HP and band-pass filters, differences to GDP become marginal due to spurious cycles. JEL Classification: C10, E32, E44, E58, G01

Suggested Citation

  • Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182138
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    1. Zsuzsanna Hosszu & Gergely Lakos, 2022. "Early Warning Performance of Univariate Credit-to-GDP Gaps," MNB Occasional Papers 2022/142, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Maximilien Coussin & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2019. "Les cycles financiers convergent-ils en zone euro? En phase oui, en amplitude non," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 403.
    3. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Jasper de Winter & Siem Jan Koopman & Irma Hindrayanto, 2022. "Joint Decomposition of Business and Financial Cycles: Evidence from Eight Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 57-79, February.
    6. Santander Quino, Camila Miriam, 2022. "Ciclos económicos y financieros: Una aproximación empírica para Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 1/2022, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    7. Greg Farrell & Esti Kemp, 2020. "Measuring the Financial Cycle in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 123-144, June.
    8. Marcelo A. T. Aragão & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2023. "A Little Less Uncertain about the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity," Working Papers Series 585, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Chentong Sun & Naiqian Li, 2023. "Extracting business cycles with three filters: A comparative study and application in the case of China," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 254-269, April.
    10. Yves Schueler, 2024. "Filtering economic time series: On the cyclical properties of Hamilton’s regression filter and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
    11. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2023. "The term effect of financial cycle variables on GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Hiebert, Paul & Jaccard, Ivan & Schüler, Yves, 2018. "Contrasting financial and business cycles: Stylized facts and candidate explanations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 72-80.
    13. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Stationarity properties of per capita CO2 emissions in the OECD in the very long-run: A replication and extension analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Coussin, Maximilien, 2022. "Singular spectrum analysis for real-time financial cycles measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit-to-GDP gap; detrending; financial cycles; macroprudential policy; spurious cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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