Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/2006678.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The geography of international portfolio flows, international CAPM and the role of monetary policy frameworks

Author

Listed:
  • De Santis, Roberto A.
Abstract
Using bilateral data on international equity and bond flows, we find that the prediction of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model is partially met and that global equity markets might be more integrated than global bond markets. Moreover, over the turbulent 1998-2001 period characterised by an equity bubble and the subsequent burst, we find evidence that investors preferred portfolio assets of countries where the central bank gave relative importance to money. As for EMU, once controlling for diversification benefits and the elimination of the exchange rate risk, we show that cross-border portfolio flows among euro area countries have increased due to the catalyst effect of EMU. Country's shares in the world market portfolio, home bias, initial degree of misallocation across countries, past returns, diversification benefits and EMU can explain 35-40% of the total variation in equity and bond asset flows. JEL Classification: C13, C21, F37, G11

Suggested Citation

  • De Santis, Roberto A., 2006. "The geography of international portfolio flows, international CAPM and the role of monetary policy frameworks," Working Paper Series 678, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006678
    Note: 185689
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp678.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    3. R. Gaston Gelos & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2005. "Transparency and International Portfolio Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2987-3020, December.
    4. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2006. "Financial integration, international portfolio choice and the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 626, European Central Bank.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    7. Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 22-51, March.
    8. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    9. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    10. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "CENTRAL BANK STRATEGY, CREDIBILITY, AND INDEPENDANCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE: Compte Rendu par Dominique Cariofillo," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 581-590, December.
    11. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2007. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 19-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Papaioannou, Elias, 2005. "What drives international bank flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Working Paper Series 437, European Central Bank.
    13. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    14. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-680.
    15. Mr. Marco Committeri, 2000. "Effects of Volatile Asset Priceson Balance of Payments and International Investment Position," IMF Working Papers 2000/191, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "International Investment Patterns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 538-549, August.
    17. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-162, May.
    18. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    19. Bohn, Henning & Tesar, Linda L, 1996. "U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 77-81, May.
    20. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    22. De Santis, Roberto A. & Lührmann, Melanie, 2006. "On the determinants of external imbalances and net international portfolio flows: a global perspective," Working Paper Series 651, European Central Bank.
    23. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    24. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, April.
    25. Shujing Li & Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Isabel K. Yan, 2004. "The Determinants of International Portfolio Holdings and Home Bias," IMF Working Papers 2004/034, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. De Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration [‘Capital flows in a globalised world: The role of policies and institutions’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(57), pages 56-106.
    2. Constantin Bürgi & Vida Bobic & Min Wu, 2019. "Net Capital Flows and Portfolio Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 7883, CESifo.
    3. De Santis, Robert A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2009. "International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1010-1027, November.
    4. Holinski, N. & Kool, C.J.M. & Muysken, J., 2008. "Taking home bias seriously: absolute and relative measures explaining consumption risk-sharing," Research Memorandum 025, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    5. Holinski, Nils & Kool, Clemens J.M. & Muysken, Joan, 2012. "The impact of international portfolio composition on consumption risk sharing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1715-1728.
    6. Roberto Santis, 2015. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1401-1430, December.
    7. Pieterse-Bloem, M., 2011. "The effect of Emu on bond market integration and investor portfolio allocations," Other publications TiSEM 3c6ce80d-9260-424a-b889-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Alberto Felettigh & Paola Monti, 2008. "How to interpret the CPIS data on the distribution of foreign portfolio assets in the presence of sizeable cross-border positions in mutual funds. Evidence for Italy and the main euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 16, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70aj72cl is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Working Papers 14519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    12. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    13. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Roberto A. de Santis & Antonin Aviat, 2009. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions and European integration," SciencePo Working papers hal-01022660, HAL.
    14. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed Abul & Ozer-Balli, Hatice, 2010. "From home bias to Euro bias: Disentangling the effects of monetary union on the European financial markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(5), pages 347-366, September.
    15. Gianni Amisano & Andreas Beyer & Michele Lenza, 2010. "Enhancing monetary analysis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11, pages 2-6.
    16. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70aj72cl is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Martin Scheicher, 2010. "“Return-free risk”? Market pricing in credit risk markets," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11, pages 7-8.
    19. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    20. Ulf Söderström, 2010. "Reevaluating Swedish Membership in the European Monetary Union: Evidence from an Estimated Model," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 379-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ginanjar Dewandaru & Rumi Masih & Mansur Masih, 2018. "Unraveling the Financial Contagion in European Stock Markets During Financial Crises: Multi-Timescale Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 859-880, March.
    22. Geoff Kenny, 2010. "Macroeconomic forecasting: can forecast combination help?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11, pages 9-12.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2006. "Financial integration, international portfolio choice and the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 626, European Central Bank.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2011. "International portfolio diversification is better than you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 289-308, March.
    5. De Santis, Robert A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2009. "International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1010-1027, November.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Roque, Vanda & Cortez, Maria Céu, 2014. "The determinants of international equity investment: Do they differ between institutional and noninstitutional investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 469-482.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g81p7j6b6 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2010. "Home bias in open economy financial macroeconomics," SciencePo Working papers hal-01069440, HAL.
    16. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: The role of real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 631-655, June.
    17. Kim, Kyungkeun & Lee, Dongwon, 2020. "Equity market integration and portfolio rebalancing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    19. Silvers, Roger, 2021. "Does regulatory cooperation help integrate equity markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1275-1300.
    20. Giofré, Maela, 2013. "International diversification: Households versus institutional investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-176.
    21. Kwabi, Frank O. & Boateng, Agyenim & Du, Min, 2020. "Impact of central bank independence and transparency on international equity portfolio allocation: A cross-country analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    22. Giofré, Maela, 2017. "Financial education, investor protection and international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 111-139.
    23. Mishra, Anil V., 2014. "Australia's home bias and cross border taxation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 108-123.
    24. Giofré, Maela, 2014. "Domestic investor protection and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 355-371.
    25. Hahm, Joon-Ho & Shin, Kwanho, 2009. "Complementarity among international asset holdings," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 37-55, March.
    26. Forbes, Kristin J., 2010. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-21, January.
    27. Fabian J. Baier & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "The UK’s banking FDI flows and Total British FDI: a dynamic BREXIT analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 193-213, March.
    28. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Philippe Martin, 2009. "The Geography of Asset Trade and the Euro: Insiders and Outsiders," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; EMU; home bias; monetary policy; Risk diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.