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Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence

Author

Listed:
  • Valérie Mignon
  • Antonin Aviat
  • Frédérique Bec
  • Claude Diebolt
  • Denis Ferrand
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Eric Heyer
  • Pierre-Alain Pionnier
  • Catherine Doz
Abstract
This article proposes a quarterly dating of recession and expansion periods of the French economy since 1970, carried out by the AFSE (Association Française de Science Economique)’s cycle dating committee. The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimates from a dataset to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that details the economic context of the time to finalize our dating. From 1970 to nowadays, the committee identified four periods of economic recession: the two oil shocks of 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession of 2008-09 spawned by the global financial crisis. The peak prior to the Covid recession has been dated to the last quarter of 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Mignon & Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Pierre-Alain Pionnier & Catherine Doz, 2021. "Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-22, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2021-22
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    File URL: https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2021/WP_EcoX_2021-22.pdf
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    Keywords

    Business cycles; French economy; dating; narrative approach; econometric models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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