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A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut: The "China Factor" and the OPEC Cartel

Author

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Daniel Gros
Abstract
The purpose of this contribution is to illustrate the mechanism by which higher oil prices might lead to lower interest rates in the context of a simple model that takes into account the global external savings equilibrium. The simple model has interesting implications for how one views the huge US current account deficit and how the emergence of China's savings surplus and oil supply shocks impact the global economy. We show that the new equilibrium is located at a lower interest rate but also at a lower growth rate than without the China effect. Moreover, we argue that the lower real interest rates resulting from excess OPEC savings have facilitated the adjustment to the subprime crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2009. "A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut: The "China Factor" and the OPEC Cartel," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 911, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Olesia Kozlova & Jose Noguera-Santaella, 2019. "Relative efficiency of oil price versus oil output in promoting economic growth: Is OPEC’s strategy right?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1997-2012, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China factor; current account adjustment; interest rate; oil prices; saving glut;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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