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Do Cross-National Differences in the Costs of Children Generate Cross-National Differences in Fertility Rates?

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  • Thomas A. DiPrete
  • S. Philip Morgan
  • Henriette Engelhardt
  • Hana Pacalova
Abstract
Parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and standard of living changes following a birth. We focus on five countries (the US, West Germany, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom), whose fertility rates span the observed fertility range in the contemporary industrialized world and whose social welfare and family policies span the conceptual space of standard welfare-state typologies. Definitive conclusions are difficult because of the multiple dimensions on which child costs can be measured, the possibility that child costs affect both the quantum and the tempo of fertility, the relatively small fertility differences across industrialized nations, and the inherent small-N problem resulting from nation-level comparisons. Empirical analysis, however, supports the assertion that institutionally driven child costs affect the fertility patterns of industrialized nations.

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  • Thomas A. DiPrete & S. Philip Morgan & Henriette Engelhardt & Hana Pacalova, 2003. "Do Cross-National Differences in the Costs of Children Generate Cross-National Differences in Fertility Rates?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 355, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp355
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    2. Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson, 2008. "Consequences of Family Policies on Childbearing Behavior: Effects or Artifacts?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(4), pages 699-724, December.
    3. Kristen Harknett & Francesco Billari & Carla Medalia, 2014. "Do Family Support Environments Influence Fertility? Evidence from 20 European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Maeder, Miriam, 2013. "The effect of education on fertility: Evidence from a compulsory schooling reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-48.
    5. Whitney Schott, 2012. "Going Back Part-time: Family Leave Legislation and Women’s Return to Work," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 31(1), pages 1-30, February.
    6. Concetta Rondinelli & Arnstein Aassve & Francesco Billari, 2010. "Women´s wages and childbearing decisions: Evidence from Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(19), pages 549-578.
    7. Ross Guest & Nick Parr, 2010. "The Effects of Family Benefits on Childbearing Decisions: A Household Optimising Approach Applied to Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 609-619, December.
    8. Frank Heiland & Alexia Prskawetz & Warren C. Sanderson, 2005. "Do the More-Educated Prefer Smaller Families?," VID Working Papers 0503, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    9. Pau Baizan & Bruno Arpino & Carlos Eric Delclòs, 2016. "The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 1-30, February.
    10. C Geist & B G Everett & R G Simmons & J N Sanders & L M Gawron & K Myers & D K Turok, 2021. "Changing lives, dynamic plans: Prospective assessment of 12-month changes in pregnancy timing intentions and personal circumstances using data from HER Salt Lake," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-11, September.
    11. Seongsoo Choi & Riley Taiji & Manting Chen & Christiaan Monden, 2020. "Cohort Trends in the Association Between Sibship Size and Educational Attainment in 26 Low-Fertility Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1035-1062, June.
    12. Maria Alessandra Antonelli & Veronica Grembi, 2009. "Asili nidi e livelli di governo: evidenze da una prima ricognizione dei comuni italiani," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(5-6), pages 45-74.
    13. Jennifer Glass & Carolyn E. Waldrep, 2023. "Child Allowances and Work-Family Reconciliation Policies: What Best Reduces Child Poverty and Gender Inequality While Enabling Desired Fertility?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-57, October.
    14. Ronald R. Rindfuss & Sarah R. Brauner-Otto, 2008. "Institutions and the transition to adulthood: Implications for fertility tempo in low-fertility settings," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 6(1), pages 57-87.
    15. Katia Begall & Melinda Mills, 2011. "The Impact of Subjective Work Control, Job Strain and Work–Family Conflict on Fertility Intentions: a European Comparison [L’impact sur les intentions de fécondité de la perception subjective de co," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 433-456, November.
    16. Anne Gauthier, 2007. "The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 323-346, June.
    17. Shelley Clark & Caroline W. Kabiru & Sonia Laszlo & Stella Muthuri, 2019. "The Impact of Childcare on Poor Urban Women’s Economic Empowerment in Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1247-1272, August.
    18. Sarah R. Brauner-Otto & Claudia Geist, 2018. "Uncertainty, Doubts, and Delays: Economic Circumstances and Childbearing Expectations Among Emerging Adults," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 88-102, March.

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