Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dar/wpaper/35698.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Röthig, Andreas
Abstract
This study compares the relation between backwardation and optimal hedging demand as suggested by economic theory to empirical findings concerning the impact of weak and strong backwardation on hedgers' trading volume in six long and short currency futures contracts. First, the optimal hedging demand of a representative importer, with and without hedging costs, is derived. Then hedgers' position data from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report are regressed on weak and strong backwardation. The empirical results offer little support for the hypotheses suggested by economic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The Impact of Backwardation on Hedgers' Demand for Currency Futures Contracts: Theory versus Empirical Evidence," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35698, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:35698
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/35698/
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32059/1/588003352.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fort, Rodney D & Quirk, James, 1988. "Normal Backwardation and the Inventory Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 81-99, February.
    2. Diamond, Peter A. & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1974. "Increases in risk and in risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 337-360, July.
    3. Michael C. Ehrhardt & James V. Jordan & Ralph A. Walkling, 1987. "An application of arbitrage pricing theory to futures markets: Tests of normal backwardation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 21-34, February.
    4. Friberg, Richard, 1998. "In which currency should exporters set their prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 59-76, June.
    5. Robert W. Kolb, 1992. "Is normal backwardation normal?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 75-91, February.
    6. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    7. Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2007. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 719-737, August.
    8. Kimball, Miles S, 1993. "Standard Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 589-611, May.
    9. Zilcha, Itzhak & Broll, Udo, 1992. "Optimal hedging by firms with multiple sources of risky revenues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 473-477, August.
    10. Jin, Hyun J. & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Offshore hedging strategy of Japan-based wheat traders under multiple sources of risk and hedging costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 220-236, March.
    11. Eric Briys & Harris Schlesinger, 1993. "Optimal hedging when preferences are state dependent," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 441-451, August.
    12. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-995, December.
    13. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
    14. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    15. Broll, Udo & Eckwert, Bernhard, 1996. "Cross-Hedging of Exchange-Rate Risk," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 282-286, October.
    16. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, , vol. 22(3), pages 1-29, July.
    17. Benninga, Simon & Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1985. "Optimal international hedging in commodity and currency forward markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 537-552, December.
    18. Ishii, Yasunori, 1977. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty: Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 768-769, September.
    19. A. Chatrath & F. Song & B. Adrangi, 2003. "Futures trading activity and stock price volatility: some extensions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 655-664.
    20. Eric Briys & François De Varenne, 1998. "Optimal Hedging and the Partial Loss Offset Provision," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(3), pages 321-333, November.
    21. Briys, Eric & Crouhy, Michel & Schlesinger, Harris, 1990. "Optimal Hedging under Intertemporally Dependent Preferences," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1315-1324, September.
    22. Broll, Udo & Wahl, Jack E. & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1995. "Indirect hedging of exchange rate risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 667-678, October.
    23. Baron, David P, 1970. "Price Uncertainty, Utility, and Industry Equilibrium in Pure Competition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(3), pages 463-480, October.
    24. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March.
    25. Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "Optimal full-hedging under state-dependent preferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 937-943.
    26. Broll, Udo & Eckwert, Bernhard, 2000. "Market structure and multiperiod hedging," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 291-298, October.
    27. Joëlle Miffre, 2000. "Normal backwardation is normal," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(9), pages 803-821, October.
    28. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. "Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-1545, December.
    29. Briys, Eric & Crouhy, Michel & Schlesinger, Harris, 1993. "Optimal hedging in a futures market with background noise and basis risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 949-960, June.
    30. Donald Lien & Yaqin Wang, 2002. "Risk aversion, disappointment aversion, and futures hedging," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 123-141, February.
    31. Nicholas Kaldor, 1940. "A Symposium on the Theory of the Forward Market: I. A Note on the Theory of the Forward Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(3), pages 196-201.
    32. Harvey Lapan & Giancarlo Moschini, 1994. "Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis, and Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(3), pages 465-477.
    33. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    34. Simon Benninga & Rafael Eldor & Itzhak Zilcha, 1984. "The optimal hedge ratio in unbiased futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 155-159, June.
    35. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1983. "Hedger Diversity in Futures Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(37), pages 370-389, June.
    36. Anne E. Peck, 1975. "Hedging and Income Stability: Concepts, Implications, and an Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 57(3), pages 410-419.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, October.
    2. Röthig, Andreas, 2008. "The impact of backwardation on hedgers' demand for currency futures contracts: theory versus empirical evidence," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 190, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    3. Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit-Pong, 1997. "Hedging of exchange rate risk and regression dependence," Discussion Papers, Series II 355, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    4. Wong, Kit Pong, 2012. "Production and futures hedging with state-dependent background risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 177-184.
    5. Wong, Kit Pong, 2017. "Production and hedging under state-dependent preferences and background risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 527-534.
    6. Adam-Muller, Axel F. A., 1997. "Export and hedging decisions under revenue and exchange rate risk: A note," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1421-1426, July.
    7. Adam-Müller, Axel F. A., 1999. "Hedging Price Risk When Real Wealth Matters," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/12, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    8. Adam-Muller, Axel F. A., 2000. "Hedging price risk when real wealth matters," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 549-560, August.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Benoît Sévi, 2006. "Ederington's ratio with production flexibility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8.
    11. Benninga, Simon Z. & Oosterhof, Casper M., 2004. "Hedging with forwards and puts in complete and incomplete markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Kit Wong, 2014. "Hedging and the competitive firm under correlated price and background risk," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 329-340, October.
    13. Kit Pong Wong, 2022. "Production and hedging under correlated price and background risks," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 45(1), pages 241-256, June.
    14. Dionne, Georges & Santugini, Marc, 2014. "Entry, imperfect competition, and futures market for the input," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 70-83.
    15. Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "Production decisions in the presence of options: A note," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 17-25, April.
    16. Lien, Donald & Wong, Kit Pong, 2004. "Optimal bidding and hedging in international markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 785-798, September.
    17. Glauber, Joseph W. & Powers, Nicholas J., 1985. "Inventory and Hedging Decision-Making Under A Multi-Period Planning Horizon and Price Uncertainty," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278562, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Lien, Donald & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey), 2017. "Production and hedging with optimism and pessimism under ambiguity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 122-135.
    19. Adam-Müller, Axel F.A. & Nolte, Ingmar, 2011. "Cross hedging under multiplicative basis risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2956-2964, November.
    20. Ricome, Aymeric & Chaib, Karim & Ridier, Aude & Kephaliacos, Charilaos & Carpy-Goulard, Francoise, 2012. "The role of cash crop marketing contracts in the adoption of low-input practices in the presence of risk and income supports," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 126222, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. David J. Pannell & Getu Hailu & Alfons Weersink & Amanda Burt, 2008. "More reasons why farmers have so little interest in futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 41-50, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:35698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dekanatssekretariat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivthdde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.