Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvre/2001011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Macroeconomics of Uncertainty and Incomplete Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques H.DREZE

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))

Abstract
Presidential address for the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, summarising semi-formally the author's recent work and concerns. Uncertainty and incomplete markets breed demand volatility as well as price and wage rigidities. The conjunction of these leads to multiple, volatile supply-constrained equilibria, typically reflecting coordination failures and apt to display persistence - as documented by three supporting theorems. Specific implications are linked to the conclusions that we should take coordination failures seriously, try to obviate demand volatility and try to by-pass price and wage rigidities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques H.DREZE, 2001. "On the Macroeconomics of Uncertainty and Incomplete Markets," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2001011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2001011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/REL/2001011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chichilnisky,Graciela (ed.), 1999. "Markets, Information and Uncertainty," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521553551, October.
    2. Dreze, Jacques H. & Gollier, Christian, 1993. "Risk sharing on the labour market and second-best wage rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1457-1482, December.
    3. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1974. "On the Short-Run Equilibrium in a Monetary Economy," International Economic Association Series, in: Jacques H. Drèze (ed.), Allocation under Uncertainty: Equilibrium and Optimality, chapter 12, pages 213-228, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Dreze, J., 1989. "The Role Of Securities And Labour Contracts In The Optimal Allocation Of Risk-Bearing," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1989008, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Dehez, Pierre & Dreze, Jacques, 1988. "Competitive equilibria with quantity-taking producers and increasing returns to scale," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 209-230, April.
    6. Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Asymmetric Information and the New Theory of the Firm: Financial Constraints and Risk Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 160-165, May.
    7. Champsaur, Paul & Dreze, Jacques H & Henry, Claude, 1977. "Stability Theorems with Economic Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 273-294, March.
    8. repec:bla:scandj:v:87:y:1985:i:2:p:160-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
    10. repec:bla:scandj:v:87:y:1985:i:2:p:197-225 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jacques H.Drèze & Edmond Malinvaud & Paul De Grauwe & Louis Gevers & Alexander Italianer & Olivier Lefebvre & Maurice Marchand & Henri Sneessens & Alfred Steinherr & Paul Champsaur & Jean-Michel Charp, 1994. "Croissance et emploi : l'ambition d'une initiative européenne," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 247-288.
    12. J.-M. Grandmont & G. Laroque, 1977. "On Temporary Keynesian Equilibrium," International Economic Association Series, in: G. C. Harcourt (ed.), The Microeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 41-61, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Roberts, John, 1987. "An Equilibrium Model with Involuntary Unemployment at Flexible, Competitive Prices and Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 856-874, December.
    14. Lubrano, Michel & Shadman-Mehta, Fatemeh & Sneessens, Henri R, 1996. "Real Wages, Quantity Constraints and Equilibrium Unemployment: Belgium, 1955-1988," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 427-457.
    15. Paul M. Sweezy, 1939. "Demand Under Conditions of Oligopoly," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(4), pages 568-568.
    16. repec:bla:econom:v:51:y:1984:i:202:p:141-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Dreze, Jacques H., 1997. "Walras--Keynes equilibria coordination and macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1735-1762, December.
    18. William Vickrey, 2004. "Today's Task for Economists," Chapters, in: Mathew Forstater & Pavlina R. Tcherneva (ed.), Full Employment and Price Stability, chapter 7, pages 44-53, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    20. Dreze, Jacques H. & Malinvaud, Edmond, 1994. "Growth and employment: The scope of a European initiative," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 489-504, April.
    21. Grandmont, Jean-michel, 1989. "Keynesian issues and economic theory," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8907, CEPREMAP.
    22. Gordon, Donald F, 1974. "A Neo-Classical Theory of Keynesian Unemployment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 431-459, December.
    23. Dreze, Jacques H, 1975. "Existence of an Exchange Equilibrium under Price Rigidities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 301-320, June.
    24. Dreze, Jacques H., 1979. "Demand estimation, risk-aversion and sticky prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-6.
    25. Herings, P.J.J. & Dreze, J., 1998. "Continua of Underemployment Equilibria," Other publications TiSEM c82ec7ae-6be6-43a7-aa39-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    26. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    27. Dehez, Pierre & Dreze, Jacques H., 1984. "On supply-constrained equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 172-182, June.
    28. Dreze, Jacques H. & Modigliani, Franco, 1972. "Consumption decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 308-335, December.
    29. DREZE, Jacques H. & DURRE, Alain & SNEESSENS, Henri R., 2000. "Investment stimulation, with some reference to housing," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1483, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    30. Laan, Gerard van der, 1982. "Simplicial approximation of unemployment equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 83-97, January.
    31. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    32. Bewley, Truman F., 1998. "Why not cut pay?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 459-490, May.
    33. Rosen, Sherwin, 1985. "Implicit Contracts: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 1144-1175, September.
    34. Hahn, F., 1992. "A Remark on Incomplete Market Equilibrium," Papers 179, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
    35. Herings, P.J.J. & van der Laan, G. & Talman, A.J.J., 1998. "Price-Quantity Adjustment in a Keynesian Economy," Discussion Paper 1998-118, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    36. Shadman-Mehta, Fatemeh & Sneessens, Henri R., 1998. "Demand-Supply Interactions and Unemployment Dynamics: Can there be Path Dependency ? The Case of Belgium, 1955-1994," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1998017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    37. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Price Rigidities and Market Structure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 350-355, May.
    38. Martin Neil Baily, 1974. "Wages and Employment under Uncertain Demand," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(1), pages 37-50.
    39. repec:bla:scandj:v:91:y:1989:i:2:p:265-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
    41. Azariadis, Costas, 1975. "Implicit Contracts and Underemployment Equilibria," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1183-1202, December.
    42. Oswald, Andrew J, 1982. "The Microeconomic Theory of the Trade Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 576-595, September.
    43. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, April.
    44. Dixon,Huw David & Rankin,Neil, 1995. "The New Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521479479, October.
    45. van der Laan, Gerard, 1984. "Supply-constrained fixed price equilibria in monetary economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 171-187, October.
    46. Chichilnisky, G., 1992. "Existence and Optimality of a General Equilibrium with Endogenous Uncertainty," Papers 93-11, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacques H. Drèze & P. Jean‐Jacques Herings, 2008. "Kinky perceived demand curves and Keynes–Negishi equilibria," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(2), pages 207-246, June.
    2. Sander van der Hoog, 2004. "Credit and Cash-in-Advance in Disequilibrium Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 294, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Hoog, S. van der, 2004. "On the Micro-Dynamics of a Cash-in-Advance Economy," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Fagnart, Jean-Francois & Pierrard, O. & Sneessens, Henri R., 2007. "Microeconomic uncertainty and macroeconomic indeterminacy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1564-1588, August.
    5. Olivier SCAILLET, 2001. "Density Estimation Using Inverse and Reciprocal Inverse Guassian Kernels," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2001017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Citanna, Alessandro & Cres, Herve & Dreze, Jacques & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Villanacci, Antonio, 2001. "Continua of underemployment equilibria reflecting coordination failures, also at Walrasian prices," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 169-200, December.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. E. Abdul Azeez, 2002. "Economic reforms and industrial performance: An analysis of capacity utilisation in Indian manufacturing," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 334, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bruinshoofd, W.A. & Letterie, W.A., 2001. "Comovement of sales, retention practice and financing constraints in Dutch manufacturing," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacques H. Drèze, 2000. "Sur la macroéconomie de l'incertitude et des marchés incomplets," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(1), pages 7-37.
    2. Dreze, Jacques H., 1997. "Walras--Keynes equilibria coordination and macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1735-1762, December.
    3. Grandmont, Jean-michel, 1989. "Keynesian issues and economic theory," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8907, CEPREMAP.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jacques H. Drèze & P. Jean‐Jacques Herings, 2008. "Kinky perceived demand curves and Keynes–Negishi equilibria," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(2), pages 207-246, June.
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10287 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bruinshoofd, W.A. & Letterie, W.A., 2001. "Comovement of sales, retention practice and financing constraints in Dutch manufacturing," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    10. Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & van der Laan, Gerard & Talman, Dolf, 2009. "Equilibria with coordination failures," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 23-37, January.
    11. Christian Calmès, 2003. "Poignée de main invisible et persistance des cycles économiques : une revue de la littérature," Staff Working Papers 03-40, Bank of Canada.
    12. Citanna, Alessandro & Cres, Herve & Dreze, Jacques & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Villanacci, Antonio, 2001. "Continua of underemployment equilibria reflecting coordination failures, also at Walrasian prices," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 169-200, December.
    13. Alessandro Citanna & Herve Cres & Antonio Villanacci, "undated". "Underemployment of resources and self-fulfilling beliefs: Nonwalrasian allocations at walrasian prices," GSIA Working Papers 11, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    14. Citanna, A. & Cres, H. & Dreze, J. & Herings, P.J.J. & Villanacci, A., 2001. "Underemployment of resources and self-fulfilling beliefs: non-Walrasian allocations at Walrasian prices," Research Memorandum 041, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    15. Herings, Jean-Jacques & van der Laan, Gerard & Talman, Dolf & Venniker, Richard, 1997. "Equilibrium adjustment of disequilibrium prices," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-77, February.
    16. Babenko, R. & Talman, A.J.J., 2006. "Quantity Constrained General Equilibrium," Other publications TiSEM 393bf7c1-3045-4a3b-b3c3-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Cardoso, Ana Rute & Portela, Miguel, 2005. "The Provision of Wage Insurance by the Firm: Evidence from a Longitudinal Matched Employer-Employee Dataset," IZA Discussion Papers 1865, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. John W. Budd & Jozef Konings & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2005. "Wages and International Rent Sharing in Multinational Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 73-84, February.
    19. Shadman-Mehta, Fatemeh & Sneessens, Henri R., 1998. "Demand-Supply Interactions and Unemployment Dynamics: Can there be Path Dependency ? The Case of Belgium, 1955-1994," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1998017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    20. Ana Rute Cardoso & Miguel Portela, 2009. "Micro Foundations for Wage Flexibility: Wage Insurance at the Firm Level," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(1), pages 29-50, March.
    21. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "The Non-Convexity Issues in a Limited-Commitment Economy," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp012009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    22. Herings, P Jean-Jacques, 1996. "Equilibrium Existence Results for Economies with Price Rigidities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 7(1), pages 63-80, January.
    23. Schob, Ronnie & Wildasin, David E., 2007. "Economic integration and labor market institutions: Worker mobility, earnings risk, and contract structure," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 141-164, March.
    24. Calmès, Christian, 2003. "La poignée de main invisible et la persistance des cycles d’affaires : un survol," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 563-581, Décembre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; wage and prices rigidities; supply-constrained equilibria; coordination failures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2001011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sebastien SCHILLINGS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.