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Saving the Euro: self-fulfilling crisis and the ?Draghi Put?

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  • Miller, Marcus
Abstract
European markets for sovereign bonds have been prone to panic as investors fly to safety whenever they think others will. Calvo (1988) had warned of the possibility of multiple equilibria in bond markets; and argued for official action to limit interest rate rises so as rule out a self-fulfilling default equilibrium. Until recently, however, it appeared that the ECB was not able to act as necessary. But in August 2012, the ECB announced a policy of Outright Monetary Transactions which promised intervention to put a ceiling on rates for sovereigns willing to accept further fiscal stringency; and we use Calvo?s framework to illustrate how this policy of a ?put? for sovereigns can work. In addition to unilateral action by the ECB, some have proposed the consolidation of sovereign debt into Eurobonds backed by a supranational agency. Specifically, we propose the creation of a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) which issues Eurobonds and holds both plain vanilla sovereign debt and newly created state-contingent bonds. This offers, we believe, a desirable complement to the ?Draghi put?.

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  • Miller, Marcus, 2014. "Saving the Euro: self-fulfilling crisis and the ?Draghi Put?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9976
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Barr & Oliver Bush & Alex Pienkowski, 2014. "GDP-linked Bonds and Sovereign Default," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Daniel Heymann (ed.), Life After Debt, chapter 4, pages 246-275, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
    4. Paul De Grauwe, 2013. "The European Central Bank as Lender of Last Resort in the Government Bond Markets," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(3), pages 520-535, September.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter.
    9. Marcus H. Miller, 2002. "Sovereign Debt Restructuring: New Articles, New Contracts--Or No Change?," Policy Briefs PB02-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2012. "The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises," Discussion Papers 1424, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2014.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blot, Christophe & Ducoudré, Bruno & Timbeau, Xavier, 2016. "Sovereign debt spread and default in a model with self-fulfilling prophecies and asymmetric information," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 281-299.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Creditor panic; Debt consolidation; Sovereign illiquidity and insolvency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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