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Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?

Author

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  • Michaels, Guy
  • Lei, Yu-Hsiang
Abstract
We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaels, Guy & Lei, Yu-Hsiang, 2011. "Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8620, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8620
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Armed conflict; Civil war; Natural resources; Petroleum; Resource curse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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