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A Direct Test of the Buffer Stock Model of Saving

Author

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  • Jappelli, Tullio
  • Pistaferri, Luigi
  • Padula, Mario
Abstract
Recent models with liquidity constraints and impatience emphasize that consumers use savings to buffer income fluctuations. When wealth is below an optimal target, consumers try to increase their buffer stock of wealth by saving more. When it is above target, they increase consumption. This important implication of the buffer stock model of saving has not been subject to direct empirical testing. We derive from the model an appropriate theoretical restriction and test it using data on working-age individuals drawn from the 2002 and 2004 Italian Surveys of Household Income and Wealth. One of the most appealing features of the survey is that it has data on the amount of wealth held for precautionary purposes, which we interpret as target wealth in a buffer stock model. The test results do not support buffer stock behaviour, even among population groups that are more likely, a priori, to display such behaviour. The saving behaviour of young households is instead consistent with models in which impatience, relative to prudence, is not as high as in buffer stock models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi & Padula, Mario, 2007. "A Direct Test of the Buffer Stock Model of Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 6576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6576
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    6. Fulford, Scott L., 2015. "The surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 151-171.
    7. Barceló, Cristina & Villanueva, Ernesto, 2016. "The response of household wealth to the risk of job loss: Evidence from differences in severance payments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 35-54.
    8. Dirk Krueger & Egor Malkov & Fabrizio Perri, 2023. "How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?," Staff Report 655, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Scott L. Fulford & Scott Schuh, 2023. "Revolving versus Convenience Use of Credit Cards: Evidence from U.S. Credit Bureau Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1667-1701, October.
    10. Scott L. Fulford, 2020. "Demand for emergency savings is higher for low-income households, but so is the cost of shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 3007-3033, June.
    11. Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2010. "The response of household wealth to the risk of losing the job: evidence from differences in firing costs," Working Papers 1002, Banco de España.
    12. Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2016. "The Consumption and Wealth Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Lifetime Resources," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1458-1471, May.
    13. Helena Ting & Martina Bozzola & Timothy Swanson, 2020. "Evaluating the propensity to save in South Africa using weather-income relationship," CIES Research Paper series 49-2017, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    14. Maria Jose Roa & Sonia Di Giannatale & Alejandra Villegas & Jonathan Barboza, 2023. "Are women more financially vulnerable than men? A tale of missed economic opportunities from Latin America," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 41(6), November.
    15. Kovacs, Agnes & Rondinelli, Concetta & Trucchi, Serena, 2021. "Permanent versus transitory income shocks over the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Dirk Krueger & Egor Malkov & Fabrizio Perri, 2024. "How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    17. Craig, Steven G. & Hemissi, Wided & Mukherjee, Satadru & Sørensen, Bent E., 2016. "How do politicians save? Buffer-stock management of unemployment insurance finance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 18-29.
    18. Levin, Mark (Левин, Марк) & Matrosova, Ksenia (Матросова, Ксения), 2018. "Development and Research of Economic Behavior of Households in Changing Conditions [Разработка И Исследование Экономического Поведения Домохозяйств В Изменяющихся Условиях]," Working Papers 041825, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
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    20. Miura, Ken & Sakurai, Takeshi, 2021. "News from the Sky: An Empirical Test of Forward-Looking Behavior Among Zambian Farmers," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315161, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Buffer stock model; Intertemporal choice; Precautionary saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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