Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/4293.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public Debt Management in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Giavazzi, Francesco
  • Missale, Alessandro
Abstract
This Paper derives the optimal composition of the Brazilian public debt by looking at the relative impact of the risk and cost of alternative debt instruments on the probability of missing the stabilization target. This allows to price risk against the expected cost of debt service and thus to find the optimal combination along the trade-off between cost and risk minimization. The optimal debt structure is a function of the expected return differentials between debt instruments, of the conditional variance of debt returns and of their covariances with output growth, inflation, exchange-rate depreciation and the Selic rate. We estimate the relevant covariances by: i) exploiting the daily survey of expectations; ii) simulating a small structural model of the Brazilian economy under different shocks; iii) estimating the unanticipated components of the relevant variables with forecasting regressions. The empirical evidence strongly supports the funding strategy of Brazilian Treasury in 2003 of relying heavily on fixed-rate LTN bonds. It also supports its recent decision to revitalize the market for price-indexed bonds with the new NTN-B program of IPCA indexation. Though decreasing, the exposure to exchange rate risk appears too large suggesting that more efforts should be made to reduce funding in foreign currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Giavazzi, Francesco & Missale, Alessandro, 2004. "Public Debt Management in Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4293, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP4293
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mats Persson & Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Debt, Cash Flow and Inflation Incentives: A Swedish Example," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 2, pages 28-66, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Goldfajn, Ilan, 2000. "Public Debt Indexation and Denomination: The Case of Brazil," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 43-56, February.
    3. Bevilaqua, Afonso S & Garcia, Marcio G P, 2002. "Debt Management in Brazil: Evaluation of the Real Plan and Challenges Ahead," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 15-35, January.
    4. Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, "undated". "Why are Brazil´s Interest Rates so High?," Working Papers 224, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2002. "Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions," Textos para discussão 464, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    6. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Missale, Alessandro, 2002. "Public debt indexation and denomination with an independent central bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1825-1850, December.
    7. Alessandro Missale, "undated". "Optimal Debt Management with a Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers 166, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Missale, Alessandro, 1999. "Public Debt Management," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290858.
    9. Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), 1998. "The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-26077-5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Melecky, 2012. "Choosing The Currency Structure Of Foreign‐Currency Debt: A Review Of Policy Approaches," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 133-151, March.
    2. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Missale, Alessandro, 2002. "Public debt indexation and denomination with an independent central bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1825-1850, December.
    3. Giorgio Basevi & Lorenzo Pecchi & Gustavo Piga, 2005. "Parallel Monies, Parallel Debt: Lessons from the EMU and Options for the New EU," CEIS Research Paper 68, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    4. Césaire A. Meh & Yaz Terajima, 2011. "Inflation, nominal portfolios, and wealth redistribution in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1369-1402, November.
    5. Arnaud Mehl & Julien Reynaud, 2008. "Domestic Debt Structures in Emerging Markets : New Empirical Evidence," Post-Print halshs-00332049, HAL.
    6. Matthias Doepke, "undated". "Inflation as a Redistribution Shock: Effects on Aggregates and Welfare," UCLA Economics Online Papers 412, UCLA Department of Economics.
    7. Mats Persson & Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 2006. "Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Solution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 193-212, January.
    8. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Real effects of inflation through the redistribution of nominal wealth," Staff Report 355, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
    10. Guido Wolswijk & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
    11. Efthimiadis, Tilemahos & Tsintzos, Panagiotis, 2009. "On Central Bank Transparency, Independence and Public Debt Policy," MPRA Paper 84830, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    12. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1317-1338, July.
    13. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
    14. Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2002. "Brazil in the 21st century: How to escape the high real interest trap?," Textos para discussão 466, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    15. Coe, P. & Vahey S.P. & Wakerly, E.C., 2000. "The Transparency and Accountability of UK Debt Management: A Proposal," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0028, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2009. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 476-515, August.
    17. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2008. "Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 363-386, March.
    18. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011. "Using inflation to erode the US public debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
    19. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Nöh, Lukas, 2019. "Increasing public debt and the role of central bank independence for debt maturities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 179-198.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.