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Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Miller, Marcus
  • García-Fronti, Javier
Abstract
The Argentine convertibility regime, where the peso was fixed at parity with the US dollar, ended with a ?twin crisis? ? a tripling in the price of a dollar and a protracted closure of the entire banking system ? accompanied by an economic contraction so severe that it is often referred to as ?Nuestra gran depresión?. But the government's attempt to imitate President Roosevelt by pesifying dollar loan contracts (while simultaneously protecting dollar depositors) had the effect of destroying bank net worth in the absence of credible compensation. To analyse the macroeconomic effects of credit crunch and currency collapse (and of policies to mitigate them), we turn to a model of crisis, specifically that of Aghion, Bacchetta & Banerjee (2000). Our account, however, combines the supply contraction cause by balance sheet effect with a Keynesian demand contraction due to a domestic credit crunch, exacerbated by unsuccessful resolution of the banking crisis. The latter is analysed as a game of political economy played between government and banks about who pays for the banking crisis induced by default and asymmetric pesification.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Marcus & García-Fronti, Javier, 2005. "Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4889
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6827 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    3. Kreps, David M. & Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Rational cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoners' dilemma," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 245-252, August.
    4. Miller, Marcus & García-Fronti, Javier, 2002. "Sovereign Default By Argentina: 'Slow Motion Train Crash' or Self-Fulfilling Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    6. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
    7. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    8. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    9. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & O'Connell, Stephen A., 2006. "A Sovereign Debt Model with Trade Credit and Reserves," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 743, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Sebastian Galiani & Daniel Heymann & Mariano Tommasi, 2002. "Missed Expectations: The Argentine Convertibility," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 515, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    11. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "IS-LM-BP in the Pampas," NBER Working Papers 9337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 117, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    13. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu’on en dit après : le « currency board » argentin et sa fin tragique," Post-Print hal-01019663, HAL.
    14. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    16. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    17. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. U. Michael Bergman & Shakill Hassan, 2008. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case," EPRU Working Paper Series 08-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Bergman, U. Michael & Jellingsø, Mads, 2010. "Monetary policy during speculative attacks: Are there adverse medium term effects?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 5-18, March.
    3. García-Fronti, Javier & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2006. "Supply shocks and currency crises : the policy dilemma reconsidered," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 760, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Argentina debt crisis; Twin crisis; Keynesian recession; Asymmetric pesification; Conflicting beliefs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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