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Modeling heavy tails and skewness in film returns

Author

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  • W. D. Walls

    (University of Calgary)

Abstract
The average of box-office revenue is dominated by extreme outcomes, with most films earning little and most revenues flowing to a few blockbusters. In this paper the skewness and heavy tails of film returns are formally modelled using skew-Normal and skew-t distributions. Logarithmic skew-Normal and skew-t models of the distribution of box-office revenue are fitted conditional on star actors and directors, budget, release pattern, genre, rating, and year of release. The estimates show significantly more skewness and heavier tails than the log-Normal distribution. It is also found that a wide theatrical release has a much smaller impact on box-office revenue when heavy tails and skewness are explicitly modelled.

Suggested Citation

  • W. D. Walls, "undated". "Modeling heavy tails and skewness in film returns," Working Papers 2014-48, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 23 Sep 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2014-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. Walls, 2005. "Modeling Movie Success When ‘Nobody Knows Anything’: Conditional Stable-Distribution Analysis Of Film Returns," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(3), pages 177-190, August.
    2. Kurt Brannas & Niklas Nordman, 2003. "Conditional skewness modelling for stock returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 725-728.
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    5. W. David Walls, 1997. "Increasing returns to information: evidence from the Hong Kong movie market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 287-290.
    6. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
    7. David Maddison, 2004. "Increasing returns to information and the survival of broadway theatre productions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 639-643.
    8. Arthur De Vany & W. David Walls, 2002. "Does Hollywood Make Too Many R-Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-452, July.
    9. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420-420.
    10. Chris Hand, 2001. "Increasing returns to information: further evidence from the UK film market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 419-421.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    motion-picture industry; heavy tails; skewness; skew-t regression model;
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