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Evidence of non-Markovian behavior in the process of bank rating migrations

Author

Listed:
  • José E. Gómez-Gonzalez
  • Nicholas M. Kiefer
Abstract
This paper estimates transition matrices for the ratings on nancial insti-tutions, using an unusually informative data set. We show that the processof rating migration exhibits signi cant non-Markovian behavior, in the sensethat the transition intensities are a¤ected by macroeconomic and bank spe-ci c variables. We illustrate how the use of a continuous time frameworkmay improve the estimation of the transition probabilities. However, thetime homogeneity assumption, frequently done in economic applications,does not hold, even for short time intervals. Thus, the information providedby migrations alone is not enough to forecast the future behavior of ratings.The stage of the business cycle should be taken into account, and individualcharacteristics of banks must be considered as well.

Suggested Citation

  • José E. Gómez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2007. "Evidence of non-Markovian behavior in the process of bank rating migrations," Borradores de Economia 3961, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003961
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mahlmann, Thomas, 2006. "Estimation of rating class transition probabilities with incomplete data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3235-3256, November.
    2. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    3. José E. Gómez-Gonzalez & Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2009. "Bank Failure: Evidence From The Colombian Financial Crisis," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(2), pages 15-31.
    4. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2007. "A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, December.
    5. Giovanni Ferri & Li-Gang Liu, 2003. "How Do Global Credit-Rating Agencies Rate Firms from Developing Countries?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 30-56.
    6. Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2001. "Rating Banks in Emerging Markets: What Credit Rating Agencies Should Learn from Financial Indicators," Working Paper Series WP01-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    8. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Eduardo Gómez & Paola Morales Acevedo & Fernando Pineda & Nancy Zamudio, 2007. "An Alternative Methodology for Estimating Credit Quality Transition Matrices," Borradores de Economia 4395, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Camilla Ferretti & Giampaolo Gabbi & Piero Ganugi & Pietro Vozzella, 2016. "Rating Trajectories and Credit Risk Migration: Evidence for SMEs," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1615, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Hinojosa, Inés Paola Orozco, 2010. "Estimation of conditional time-homogeneous credit quality transition matrices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 89-96, January.
    4. Camilla Ferretti & Giampaolo Gabbi & Piero Ganugi & Federica Sist & Pietro Vozzella, 2019. "Credit Risk Migration and Economic Cycles," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial institutions; macroeconomic variables; capitalization; supervision; transition intensities.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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