Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/003168.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Los Equilibrios Macroeconomicos Y El Banco Central:El Caso Colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Salomón Kalmanovitz
Abstract
El Banco Central tiene su mayor impacto en la macroeconomía al determinar la oferta de dinero primario. De su cruce con la demanda por base monetaria se deriva cierta tasa de interés a la vista que se transmite con rezagos a los mercados monetarios de mayor plazo y conduce a la economía por una senda de expansión o contracción, en tanto la oferta de crédito apuntala la demanda por bienes durables, vivienda y financia nuevas inversiones o su disminución las aletarga.2 Con todo, la tasa de interés tiene sus propios determinantes, entre otros, la oferta de ahorro financiero y el nivel de riesgo que experimentan los agentes frente a las instituciones financieras o frente a la moneda del país. Este precio del dinero es entonces susceptible a las expectativas que tengan los agentes sobre el futuro y sobre la economía. Por lo tanto, la autoridad monetaria puede estar lejos de controlar todas las variables que inciden en la determinación de las tasas de interés. La tasa de interés debe ser compatible con otros equilibrios macroeconómicos: si es muy baja, por ejemplo, puede conducir a un exceso de actividad y a profundizar el desequilibrio externo del país por la vía del aumento de importaciones y una salida de capital o si es muy alta puede atraer capital externo y propiciar una revaluación de la moneda. En países en desarrollo es frecuente encontrar que los políticos se impacientan con el ritmo de expansión que lleva la economía o por la renuencia del sector privado a pagar impuestos y tienden a presionar por una mayor oferta monetaria que financie mayores niveles de crédito y de gasto público. Cuando estas presiones son exitosas, la inflación se incrementa e introduce cambios frecuentes de precios relativos, genera neblina en el sistema de información y, por lo tanto, induce la toma de decisiones equivocadas por los agentes económicos, tiende a revaluar la tasa de cambio, descrema los ingresos fijos y produce algunos ganadores (bancos y gobierno) sin que participen en actividades productivas. El resultado frecuente es poco crecimiento económico y niveles crecientes de inflación. Para evitar estas presiones, al banco colombiano le fue otorgada una buena dosis de independencia política en la nueva constitución de 1991.

Suggested Citation

  • Salomón Kalmanovitz, 1999. "Los Equilibrios Macroeconomicos Y El Banco Central:El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 3168, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14, January.
    2. Roberto Steiner & Adolfo Barajas & Natalia Salazar Ferro, 1997. "El margen de intermediación bancaria en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    3. José Darío Uribe, 1994. "Inflación y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia: 1951-1992," Borradores de Economia 001, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Constanza Martínez Ventura, 2005. "Una revisión empírica sobre los determinantes del margen de intermediación en Colombia, 1989-2003," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 118-183, Junio.
    2. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    3. Gala, Paulo & Libânio, Gilberto, 2010. "Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries," Textos para discussão 211, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 29-56, December.
    5. Carlos Esteban Posada P., 1997. "Otro costo de una inflación perfectamente prevista," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 16(31), pages 5-33, June.
    6. Miller, Marcus & Papi, Laura, 1997. "The 'laissez faire' bias of managed floating," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 989-1000, December.
    7. Marko Malovic, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets: A Showdown for Few Theoretical Misconceptions," Economic Analysis, Institute of Economic Sciences, vol. 40(1-2), pages 17-28.
    8. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martín, 2012. "Exchange rate regimes in the major Latin American countries since the 1950s: lessons from history," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 157-188, January.
    9. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    10. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. María I. Campos & José L. Torres & Esmeralda Villegas, 2006. "The credibility of the Venezuela crawling-band system," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    12. Shaghil Ahmed & Iffat Ara & Kalim Hyder, 2006. "How External Shocks and Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Pakistan? Implications for Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 61-68.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies," Working Paper Series rwp03-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    14. Galindo, Arturo J. & Maloney, William F., 2002. "Second moments in speculative attack models: panel evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-129, January.
    15. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 105, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Miguel Gouvêa & António Portugal Duarte, 2011. "Choice and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries: The Case of Chile," Book Chapters, in: Stefan Bogdan Salej & Dejan Eric & Srdjan Redzepagic & Ivan Stosic (ed.), Contemporary Issues in the Integration Processes of Western Balkan Countries in the European Union, chapter 19, pages 304-321, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    17. Hernando Vargas H., 1996. "Apertura, encajes e intermediación financiera," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 15(30), pages 5-40, December.
    18. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2000. "Monetary policy and exchange rate targeting in open economies," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 14, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    19. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2015. "Adjustments of Capital Account Restrictions and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-32.
    20. Jie Sun, 2010. "Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform: Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(6), pages 19-35, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:003168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.