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Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules

Author

Listed:
  • George W. Evans
  • Seppo Honkapohja
Abstract
We consider robust stability under learning of alternative interest-rate rules. By “robust stability” we mean stability of the rational expectations equilibrium, under discounted (constant gain) least-squares learning, for a range of gain parameters. We find that many interest-rate rules are not robust, in this sense, when operational forms of policy rules are employed. Rules are considered operational if they do not depend on contemporaneous values of endogenous aggregate variables. We consider a variety of interest-rate rules, including instrument rules, optimal reaction functions under discretion or commitment, and rules that approximate optimal policy under commitment. For some of the rules that aim to achieve optimal policy, we allow for an interest-rate stabilization motive in the policy objective. The expectations-based rules proposed in Evans and Honkapohja (2003, 2006) deliver robust learning stability. In contrast, many proposed alternatives become unstable under learning even at small values of the gain parameter.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Robust Learning Stability with Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 504, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:504
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    1. Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2014. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 113-126.
    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 26-53.
    4. George Waters, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting under learning," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 153-159, January.
    5. Eric Gaus, 2012. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 13-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2012.
    6. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
    7. Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2019. "An approximation of the distribution of learning estimates in macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 29-43.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Managing unanchored, heterogeneous expectations and liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-16.
    9. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2014. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 113-126.
    10. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 439-453, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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