Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/193.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (oca) Criteria in the Light of EMU

Author

Listed:
  • M.J. Artis
Abstract
The objective of this paper is first to review the use that has been made of Optimal Currency Area (OCA) theory in the European Monetary Union (EMU) context. Second, to look at some of its predictions in that respect. And third, to appraise some of the new theories - or speculations - that have arisen, partly as a result of the confrontation of the theory with the data. This is an area in which politics are very important; they play an important role in the reception and interpretation of positive work. Tentative ideas and speculative hypotheses acquire the aura of accomplished fact, whilst a single empirical illustration can be given the status of a many-times confirmed demonstration. This paper tries to be more careful in these remarks. Whilst history offers some instructive lessons, as illustrated for example in the work of Bordo and Jonung (1999), the fact is that in most relevant respects EMU represents an unparalleled experiment, with corresponding difficulties for empirical work.

Suggested Citation

  • M.J. Artis, 2002. "Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (oca) Criteria in the Light of EMU," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 193, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_193.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 243-247, May.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    5. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    7. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    8. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    9. Artis, Michael J & Kohler, Marion & Melitz, Jacques, 1998. "Trade and the Number of Optimum Currency Areas in the World," CEPR Discussion Papers 1926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, September.
    11. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5dt9501s, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Pagan, Adrian, 1997. "Policy, Theory, and the Cycle," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 19-33, Autumn.
    14. Artis, M.J. & Zhang, W., 2002. "Membership of EMU: A Fuzzy Clustering Analysis of Alternative Criteria," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 54-79.
    15. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    17. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    18. Hossein Samiei & Mr. Zenon Kontolemis, 2000. "The U.K. Business Cycle, Monetary Policy, and EMU Entry," IMF Working Papers 2000/210, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    20. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1994. "A Common Monetary Standard or a Common Currency for Europe? Fiscal Lessons from the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 337-357, November.
    21. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Breitung, Jörg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2000. "Common cycles: A frequency domain approach," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,99, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    23. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1999. "The Future of EMU: What Does the History of Monetary Unions Tell Us?," NBER Working Papers 7365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Buiter, Willem H. & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "`Excessive Deficits': Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht," CEPR Discussion Papers 750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Buiter, Willem, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    27. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    28. Jonathan Rubin & Niels Thygesen, 1996. "Monetary Union and the Outsiders - A Cointegration/ Codependence Analysis of Business Cycles in Europe," Discussion Papers 96-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    29. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Identifying the Shocks behind Business Cycle Asynchrony in Euroland," Working Papers 12-11, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    2. Peter Wierts & Henk van Kerkhoff & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Trade Dynamics in the Euro Area: The role of export destination and composition," DNB Working Papers 354, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Richard E. Baldwin & Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," NBER Working Papers 12673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1235-1246, May.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Are The Baltic Countries Ready To Adopt The Euro? A Generalized Purchasing Power Parity Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(3), pages 429-454, June.
    6. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 19-34, June.
    7. Bertrand Candelon & Jan Piplack & Stefan Straetmans, 2009. "Multivariate Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 715-737, October.
    8. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Foresti Pasquale, 2011. "Is Latin America an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from a Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(104), pages 43-68.
    10. M. Huchet & Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte, 2008. "Growing too fast? Shock asymmetries and the Euro area enlargement," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(1), pages 33-56.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    12. Steven Buigut, 2006. "Monetary Integration Initiatives in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA): Sorting the Overlapping Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 295-315, December.
    13. Marcel Fratzscher & Livio Stracca, 2009. "Does It Pay to Have the Euro? Italy's Troubled Politics and Financial Markets under the Lira and the Euro," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, May.
    14. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marilyne Huchet, 2009. "Shock asymmetries and distance to the Euro Area," Post-Print hal-00730072, HAL.
    15. Carsten Trenkler & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Identifying shocks to business cycles with asynchronous propagation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1815-1836, April.
    16. Spahn, Peter, 2012. "Integration durch Währungsunion? Der Fall der Euro-Zone," FZID Discussion Papers 57-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    17. Hall, S.G. & Yhap, B., 2008. "Measuring the Correlation of Shocks Between the UK and the Core of Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 17-26, March.
    18. Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2006. "The Euro and Other Major Currencies Floating Against the U.S. Dollar," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 367-384, December.
    19. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    20. Hans Vollaard, 2014. "Explaining European Disintegration," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(5), pages 1142-1159, September.
    21. Lars Jonung, 2004. "The Political Economy of Monetary Unification: The Swedish Euro Referendum of 2003," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 123-149, Spring/Su.
    22. Anjan Panday, 2014. "Monetary Integration between India and Nepal," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 15(2), pages 199-224, September.
    23. Jonung, Lars, 2004. "To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003," MPRA Paper 1334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Peter Wierts & Henk Van Kerkhoff & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Composition of Exports and Export Performance of Eurozone Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 928-941, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:69:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    3. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Michael Artis, 2008. "What do we now know about currency unions?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 13-29.
    5. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, August.
    6. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    7. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    8. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Mendonça, António & Silvestre, João & Passos, José, 2011. "The shrinking endogeneity of optimum currency areas criteria: Evidence from the European Monetary Union--A beta regression approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 65-69, October.
    10. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    11. Boewer Böwer, Uwe, 2006. "Risk Sharing, Financial integration, and "Mundell II" in the Enlarged European Union," Institute of European Studies, Working Paper Series qt2xz37086, Institute of European Studies, UC Berkeley.
    12. Salvador Barrios & Marius Brülhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co‐Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    13. Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Álvaro Pina, 2011. "Business Cycles, Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 565-592, September.
    14. Buch, Claudia M. & Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Real and Financial Integration in Europe - Evidence for the Accession States and for the Pre-Ins," Kiel Working Papers 917, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2013. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 264-281, February.
    17. Schor, Armand-Denis, 2000. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales : l’optimum, le praticable, le crédible et le réel," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 545-576, décembre.
    18. Kapounek, Svatopluk & Kučerová, Zuzana, 2019. "Historical decoupling in the EU: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 265-280.
    19. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2008. "An alternative reconsideration of macroeconomic convergence criteria for West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 11367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    21. António Caleiro, 2011. "Acerca da importância da sincronização do ciclo económico português no contexto europeu," Economics Working Papers 4_2011, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alvaro Castillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.