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History Dependence in the Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Bracke

    (Bank of England
    Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC) London School of Economics (LSE))

  • Silvana Tenreyro

    (London School of Economics (LSE)
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))

Abstract
Using the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales in the last twenty years, we document a robust pattern of history dependence in housing markets. Sale prices and selling probabilities today are affected by aggregate house prices prevailing in the period in which properties were previously bought. We investigate the causes of history dependence, with its quantitative implications for the post-crisis recovery of the housing market. To do so we complement our analysis with administrative data on mortgages and online house listings, which we match to actual sales. We find that high leverage in the pre-crisis period and anchoring (or reference dependence) both contributed to the collapse and slow recovery of the volume of housing transactions. We find no asymmetric effects of anchoring to previous prices on current transactions; in other words, loss aversion does not appear to play a role over and above simple anchoring.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2016. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," Discussion Papers 1635, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1635
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    4. Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & David Hume & John Gathergood & George Loewenstein & Neil Stewart, 2023. "At the Top of the Mind: Peak Prices and the Disposition Effect," Discussion Papers 2023-09, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    5. Jordan Rappaport, 2023. "Home Prices Are Overvalued but Will Decline Only Gradually," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue February , pages 1-4, February.
    6. Garbarino, Nicola & Guin, Benjamin & Lee, Jonathan, 2022. "The Effects of Subsidized Flood Insurance on Real Estate Markets," Bank of England working papers 995, Bank of England.
    7. Lamorgese, Andrea R. & Pellegrino, Dario, 2022. "Loss aversion in housing appraisal: Evidence from Italian homeowners," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    8. Badarinza, Cristian & Ramadorai, Tarun & Siljander, Juhana & Tripathy, Jagdish, 2024. "Behavioral Lock-In: Aggregate Implications of Reference Dependence in the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 19123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Zhou, Tingyu & Clapp, John M & Lu-Andrews, Ran, 2021. "Is the behavior of sellers with expected gains and losses relevant to cycles in house prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Ross, Stephen L. & Zhou, Tingyu, 2024. "Loss aversion and focal point bias: Empirical evidence from housing markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
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    12. Giacoletti, Marco & Parsons, Christopher A., 2022. "Peak-Bust rental spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 504-526.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing market; Fluctuations; Down-payment effects; Reference dependence; Anchoring; Loss aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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