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Economic and Political Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union: A Dynamic Random Coefficient Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Bayar
  • Bram Smeets
Abstract
This paper formulates a dynamic Random Coefficient Model (RCM) to consider a set of popular determinants of public deficits in the EU-15 over the period 1971-2006, both at a country-specific level and from a population-wide perspective. Although the extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated macroeconomic issues in recent times, the models trying to capture the explanatory powers driving these deficits typically estimate models that pose the strict assumption of homogeneity on the coefficients over all countries in the model. The sensibility of this assumption will be investigated, with results showing that an increase in the degree of heterogeneity leads to an improvement in the model fit and provides additional information to nuance the effects of the explanatory variables. In this way, the paper exposes a limited degree of partisanship over all countries under consideration, but on the other hand provides evidence for opportunistic behaviour of policymakers in the major part of the sample. The effect of institutional changes following the enforcement of the Maastricht Treaty varies over the countries and is related to the necessity of budgetary consolidation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Economic and Political Determinants of Budget Deficits in the European Union: A Dynamic Random Coefficient Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2546, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2546
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad, 2020. "Impact of Political Uncertainty on Pakistan Stock Exchange (1990-1999): An Event Study Approach," MPRA Paper 104623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Fiscal Policy from a Public Choice Perspective," Carleton Economic Papers 10-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Serdar Kurt & Canan Gunes & Verda Davasligil, 2012. "The Effect of Global Financial Crisis on Budget Deficits in European Countries: Panel Data Analysis," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Laura Jaramillo & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 2012. "Walking Hand in Hand: Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/137, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob Haan, 2013. "Political budget cycles and election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 245-267, October.
    6. Mark Edem Kunawotor & Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Patrick O. Asuming & Kofi A. Amoateng, 2022. "The implications of climate change and extreme weather events for fiscal balance and fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(2), pages 470-492, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; European Monetary Union; Random Coefficient Model; Bayesian Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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