Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_9997.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Taxation with a Grain of Salt: The Long-Term Effect of Fiscal Policy on Local Development

Author

Listed:
  • Tommaso Giommoni
  • Gabriel Loumeau
Abstract
This paper studies the long-term effect of taxation on economic geography and development. We rely on a unique natural experiment in place during France’s ancien régime: the salt tax. Introduced in the late 13th century and abrogated by the French Revolution in 1789, the salt tax was not uniformly levied across the French kingdom as its rate varied discontinuously in space. Using a series of rich and original historical data at regular time intervals and very fine spatial resolution since the fifteen century, we estimate a Spatial RDD model. We find that these exogenous tax rate differentials have had large effects on economic geography and development. These effects are, then, confirmed in a DiD analysis, that studies a very large time span (1400-1900 using regular intervals of 25 years) and documents the absence of pre-trends. Most of the effects can still be observed today in population density, firm density, and local average income.

Suggested Citation

  • Tommaso Giommoni & Gabriel Loumeau, 2022. "Taxation with a Grain of Salt: The Long-Term Effect of Fiscal Policy on Local Development," CESifo Working Paper Series 9997, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9997
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9997.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stokey, Nancy L & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 519-550, June.
    2. Andrei Markevich & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2018. "The Economic Effects of the Abolition of Serfdom: Evidence from the Russian Empire," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 1074-1117, April.
    3. Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2021. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 3-40, January.
    4. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    5. Burchardi, Konrad & Terry, Stephen & Chaney, Thomas & Tarquinio, Lisa & Hassan, Tarek, 2020. "Immigration, Innovation, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 14719, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Massimo Anelli & Gætano Basso & Giuseppe Ippedico & Giovanni Peri, 2020. "Does Emigration Drain Entrepreneurs?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8388, CESifo.
    7. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    8. James E. Rauch, 1993. "Does History Matter Only When It Matters Little? The Case of City-Industry Location," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 843-867.
    9. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65, February.
    10. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2001. "Monopolistic competition, trade, and endogenous spatial fluctuations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-77, February.
    11. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2013. "Pre‐Colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 113-152, January.
    12. Réka Juhász & Mara P. Squicciarini & Nico Voigtländer, 2020. "Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France," NBER Working Papers 27503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Berthold Herrendorf & Akos Valentinyi & Robert Waldmann, 2000. "Ruling Out Multiplicity and Indeterminacy: The Role of Heterogeneity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(2), pages 295-307.
    14. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    15. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
    16. Sascha O. Becker & Irena Grosfeld & Pauline Grosjean & Nico Voigtländer & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2020. "Forced Migration and Human Capital: Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1430-1463, May.
    17. Pelle Ahlerup & Thushyanthan Baskaran & Arne Bigsten, 2015. "Tax Innovations and Public Revenues in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 689-706, June.
    18. Diamond, Peter A & Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "Optimal Taxation and Public Production: I--Production Efficiency," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 8-27, March.
    19. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Rocío Titiunik, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 442-451, July.
    20. Mara P. Squicciarini & Nico Voigtländer, 2015. "Human Capital and Industrialization: Evidence from the Age of Enlightenment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(4), pages 1825-1883.
    21. King, Robert G & Rebelo, Sergio, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 126-150, October.
    22. Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "The Geography of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 903-983.
    23. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    24. Keen, Michael & Lockwood, Ben, 2010. "The value added tax: Its causes and consequences," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 138-151, July.
    25. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D Cattaneo & Max H Farrell, 2020. "Optimal bandwidth choice for robust bias-corrected inference in regression discontinuity designs," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 192-210.
    26. Ying Bai & Ruixue Jia, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of Political Hierarchy: Evidence from Regime Changes in China, AD1000-2000," NBER Working Papers 26652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Kaisa Alavuotunki & Mika Haapanen & Jukka Pirttilä, 2019. "The Effects of the Value-Added Tax on Revenue and Inequality," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 490-508, April.
    28. Sukkoo Kim, 1995. "Expansion of Markets and the Geographic Distribution of Economic Activities: The Trends in U. S. Regional Manufacturing Structure, 1860–1987," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 881-908.
    29. Martin Zagler & Georg Dürnecker, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-418, July.
    30. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    31. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2012. "Portage and Path Dependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 587-644.
    32. Alex Ufier, 2017. "The effect of VATs on government balance sheets," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(6), pages 1141-1173, December.
    33. Ganong, Peter & Shoag, Daniel, 2017. "Why has regional income convergence in the U.S. declined?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 76-90.
    34. Treb Allen & Dave Donaldson, 2020. "Persistence and Path Dependence in the Spatial Economy," NBER Working Papers 28059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Melissa Dell, 2010. "The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 1863-1903, November.
    36. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2015. "History and the Sizes of Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 558-563, May.
    37. Ana Paula Franco & Sebastian Galiani & Pablo Lavado, 2021. "Long-term effects of the Inca Road," NBER Working Papers 28979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    39. Alex Ufier, 2014. "Quasi-Experimental Analysis On The Effects Of Adoption Of A Value Added Tax," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 1364-1379, October.
    40. Fujita, Masahisa & Ogawa, Hideaki, 1982. "Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 161-196, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allen, Treb & Donaldson, Dave, 2022. "Persistence and path dependence: A primer," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Lin, Jeffrey & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2022. "What future for history dependence in spatial economics?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Kohei Takeda & Atsushi Yamagishi, 2024. "The economic dynamics of city structure: Evidence from Hiroshima's recovery," CEP Discussion Papers dp1988, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Venables, Anthony & Duranton, Gilles, 2018. "Place-Based Policies for Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 12889, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Nunn, Nathan, 2014. "Historical Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 347-402, Elsevier.
    8. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    9. Fuchs-Schündeln, N. & Hassan, T.A., 2016. "Natural Experiments in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 923-1012, Elsevier.
    10. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    11. Maseland, Robbert, 2021. "Contingent determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    12. Leonardo M. Klüppel & Lamar Pierce & Jason A. Snyder, 2018. "Perspective—The Deep Historical Roots of Organization and Strategy: Traumatic Shocks, Culture, and Institutions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 702-721, August.
    13. Takashi Akamatsu & Tomoya Mori & Minoru Osawa & Yuki Takayama, 2019. "Spatial scale of agglomeration and dispersion: Number, spacing, and the spatial extent of cities," Papers 1912.05113, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    14. Xu, Hangtian, 2016. "Multiple Equilibria in the Urban Spatial Structure: Evidence from the Hanshin Earthquake," MPRA Paper 75219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Christoph Eder & Martin Halla & Philipp Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher, 2024. "The Long-Term Effects of Military Occupations: Evidence from Post-World War II Austria," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp366, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Stef Proost & Jacques-François Thisse, 2019. "What Can Be Learned from Spatial Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 575-643, September.
    17. Guarnieri, Eleonora & Rainer, Helmut, 2021. "Colonialism and female empowerment: A two-sided legacy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Smith, Cory B. & Kulka, Amrita, 2024. "When is Long-run Agglomeration Possible? Evidence from County Seat Wars," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343859, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Seidel, Tobias & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2014. "The persistent effects of regional policy - Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100515, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Siodla, James, 2021. "Firms, fires, and firebreaks: The impact of the 1906 San Francisco disaster on business agglomeration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    taxation; long-term; economic georgraphy; development; spatial discontinuity; salt tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.