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Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?

Author

Listed:
  • Martin M. Andreasen
  • Giovanni Caggiano
  • Efrem Castelnuovo
  • Giovanni Pellegrino
Abstract
This paper uses a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New Keynesian model with recursive preferences and approximated to third order around its risky steady state replicates these state-dependent responses. The key mechanism behind this result is that firms display a stronger upward nominal pricing bias in recessions than in expansions, because recessions imply higher inflation volatility and higher marginal utility of consumption than expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9328, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9328
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    3. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle through the MIDAS Lens," CESifo Working Paper Series 10062, CESifo.
    6. Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 841-869, August.
    7. Ivan Jaccard, 2024. "Monetary Asymmetries Without (And With) Price Stickiness," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1003-1047, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian model; nonlinear SVAR; non-recursive identification; state-dependent uncertainty shock; risky steady state;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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