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The Trade Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Xuepeng Liu
  • Emanuel Ornelas
  • Huimin Shi
Abstract
Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries’ imports from China during 2020. We find that a country’s own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed over the negative supply effects of the pandemic. On the other hand, Covid-19 deaths in the main trading partners of a country (excluding China) induces more imports from China, partially offsetting countries’ own effects. The net effect of moving from the pre-pandemic situation to another where the main variables are evaluated at their 2020 mean is, on average, a reduction of nearly 10% in imports from China. There is also significant heterogeneity. For example, the negative own effects of the pandemic vanish when we restrict the sample to medical goods and are significantly mitigated for products with a high “work-from-home” share or a high contract intensity for products exported under processing trade, and for capital goods. We also find that deaths and lockdowns in previous months tend to increase current imports from China, partially offsetting the contemporaneous trade loss, suggesting that trade is not simply “destroyed,” but partially “postponed".

Suggested Citation

  • Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2021. "The Trade Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 9109, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Konstantins Benkovskis & Jaanika Merikull & Aurelija Proskute, 2024. "The transmission of trade shocks across countries: firm-level evidence from the Covid-19 crisis," Working Papers 2024/01, Latvijas Banka.
    4. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 containment measures on trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 766-778.
    5. João Amador & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Ana Catarina Pimenta, 2023. "COVID-19, lockdowns and international trade: evidence from firm-level data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2427-2466, November.
    6. Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier & Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean, 2023. "Supply Shocks in Supply Chains: Evidence from the Early Lockdown in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 170-215, March.
    7. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Shigeru Kimura & Ikarii Ryohei & Endo Seiya, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy Demand Situation of East Asia Summit Countries," Working Papers DP-2021-22, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    9. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade disruptions along the global supply chain," Discussion Papers 2023-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    10. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2022. "The effect of the pandemic on complex socio-economic systems: community detection induced by communicability," Papers 2201.12618, arXiv.org.
    11. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
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    13. Jaqueline Hansen & Antonia Kamaliev & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2023. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Chinese Trade Relations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 673-702, July.
    14. Bart Kamp, 2021. "Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons in supply chain management among industrial firms," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 100(02), pages 210-233.
    15. Sinem Koçak & Özge Barış-Tüzemen, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 on foreign direct investment inflows in emerging economies: evidence from panel quantile regression," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    16. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Alejandro G. Graziano & Yuan Tian, 2023. "Trade Disruptions Along the Global Supply Chain," Working Papers 243, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    18. Antoine Berthou & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "Trade Under Lockdown," Working papers 867, Banque de France.
    19. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Christopher Findlay & Hein Roelfsema & Niall Van De Wouw, 2021. "Feeling the Pulse of Global Value Chains: Air Cargo and COVID-19," Working Papers DP-2021-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    21. Sarah Y Tong & Yao Li & Tuan Yuen Kong, 2021. "Exploring Digital Economic Agreements to Promote Digital Connectivity in ASEAN," Working Papers DP-2021-24, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade flows; Covid-19; lockdown; stringency; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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