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Growth and Welfare under Endogenous Lifetime

Author

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  • Maik T. Schneider
  • Ralph Winkler
Abstract
We study the role of endogenous healthcare choices by households to extend their expected lifetimes on economic growth and welfare in a decentralized overlapping generations economy with the realistic feature that households’ savings are held in annuities. We characterize healthcare spending in the decentralized market equilibrium and its effects on economic growth. We identify the moral-hazard effect in healthcare investments when annuity rates are conditioned on average mortality and explain the conditions under which this leads to over-investment in healthcare. Moreover, we specify the general equilibrium effects and macroeconomic repercussions associated with this moral-hazard effect. In a numerical simulation of our model with OECD data, we find that the moral-hazard effect may be substantial and implies sizeable welfare losses of approximately 1.5%. At a more general level, our study suggests that welfare improvements from longevity increases may be lower than suggested when considered in planner economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Maik T. Schneider & Ralph Winkler, 2017. "Growth and Welfare under Endogenous Lifetime," CESifo Working Paper Series 6367, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6367
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael, 2018. "Health insurance, endogenous medical progress, and health expenditure growth," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 01/2018, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    2. Kuhn, Michael & Minniti, Antonio & Prettner, Klaus & Venturini, Francesco, 2023. "Medical innovation, life expectancy, and economic growth," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 342, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Andreas Schaefer, 2020. "Inequality, survival to adulthood, and the growth drag of pollution," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 59-79.
    4. Ivan Frankovic & Michael Kuhn & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2020. "On the Anatomy of Medical Progress Within an Overlapping Generations Economy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 215-257, June.
    5. Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-119.
    6. Torben M. Andersen & Joydeep Bhattacharya, 2014. "A dynamic-efficiency rationale for public investment in the health of the young," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 697-719, August.
    7. Kelly, Mark, 2020. "Medicare for all or medicare for none? A macroeconomic analysis of healthcare reform," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    9. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael, 2023. "Health insurance, endogenous medical progress, health expenditure growth, and welfare," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Kuhn, Michael & Frankovic, Ivan & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2017. "Medical Progress, Demand for Health Care, and Economic Performance," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168249, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.
    12. Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    13. Pintu Parui & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Public provision of healthcare and basic science: What are the effects on economic growth and welfare?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp365, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    14. Fehr, Hans & Feldman, Maria, 2024. "Financing universal health care: Premiums or payroll taxes?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    15. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2016. "Medical care within an OLG economy with realistic demography," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 02/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    16. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael, 2019. "Access to health care, medical progress and the emergence of the longevity gap: A general equilibrium analysis," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    18. Belyakov, A.O. & Kurbatskiy, A.N. & Prettner, K., 2021. "The growth effects of anticipated versus unanticipated population aging," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    annuities; economic growth; endogenous longevity; healthcare expenditures; healthcare technology; moral hazard; pension systems; welfare analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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