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Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox

Author

Listed:
  • Michael A. Clemens

    (Center for Global Development
    IZA Institute for Labor Economics)

  • Mariapia Mendola

    (Università degli Studi di Milano Bicocca
    IZA Institute for Labor Economics)

Abstract
How does immigration affect incomes in the countries migrants go to, and how do rising incomes shape emigration from the countries they leave? The answers depend on whether people who migrate have higher or lower productivity than people who do not migrate. Theory on this subject has long exceeded evidence. We present estimates of emigrant selection on both observed and unobserved determinants of income, from across the developing world. We use nationally representative survey data on 7,013 people making active, costly preparations to emigrate from 99 developing countries during 2010–2015. We model the relationship between these measures of selection and the income elasticity of migration. In low-income countries, people actively preparing to emigrate have 30 percent higher incomes than others overall, 14 percent higher incomes explained by observable traits such as schooling, and 12 percent higher incomes explained by unobservable traits. Within low-income countries the income elasticity of emigration demand is 0.23. The world’s poor collectively treat migration not as an inferior good, but as a normal good. Any negative effect of higher income on emigration within subpopulations can reverse in the aggregate, because the composition of subpopulations shifts as incomes rise—an instance of Simpson’s paradox.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A. Clemens & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox," Working Papers 539, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:539
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    Cited by:

    1. Pritchett, Lant, 2023. "Rely (only) on the rigorous evidence” is bad advice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119818, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Michael A. Clemens & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox," Working Papers 539, Center for Global Development.
    3. Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire & Frédéric Docquier, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-01, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    4. Rasheed M. Abdul & Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath & S. Shibinu, 2023. "Macroeconomic determinants of emigration from India to the United States," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 63-74, February.
    5. Müller, Tobias & Pannatier, Pia & Viarengo, Martina, 2023. "Labor market integration, local conditions and inequalities: Evidence from refugees in Switzerland," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Esha Zaveri & Jason Russ & Amjad Khan & Richard Damania & Edoardo Borgomeo & Anders Jägerskog, 2021. "Ebb and Flow, Volume 1," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 36089.
    7. Friebel, Guido & Manchin, Miriam & Mendola, Mariapia & Prarolo, Giovanni, 2024. "International migration and illegal costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe smuggling routes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    8. Melissa Hidrobo & Valerie Mueller & Shalini Roy, 2022. "Cash transfers, migration, and gender norms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 550-568, March.
    9. Narcisse Cha'Ngom & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2023. "Selective Migration and Economic Development: A Generalized Approach," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    10. Clemens, Michael A., 2022. "Do Cash Transfers Deter Migration?," IZA Policy Papers 191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Violence, development, and migration waves: Evidence from Central American child migrant apprehensions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire & Evangelos Paschalidis & Silvia Varotto & Andreas B. Vortisch, 2024. "The Impact of a Possible Trump Reelection on Mexican Immigration Pressures in Alternative Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 11195, CESifo.
    13. Langella, Monica & Manning, Alan, 2021. "Income and the desire to migrate," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113875, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Ran Abramitzky & Travis Baseler & Isabelle Sin, 2022. "How does persecution affect who migrates? We analyze migrants’ self-selection out of the USSR and its satellite states before and after the collapse of Communism using census microdata from the three ," Working Papers 22_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    15. Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2021. "Inmigración y políticas migratorias en España," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2021-10, FEDEA.
    16. Michel Beine, 2020. "Age, Intentions and the Implicit Role of Out-Selection Factors of International Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 8688, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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