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The Elusive Quest for Additionality

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Carter

    (CDC Group)

  • Nicolas Van de Sijpe

    (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield)

  • Raphael Calel

    (McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University)

Abstract
Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) are frequently asked to demonstrate their additionality—meaning that they make investments that the private sector would not—but what evidence of additionality would look like is rarely articulated. This paper examines potential quantitative and qualitative evidence. We investigate whether it is possible to infer additionality from observational investment data, and show how the demand-led nature of DFIs’ business model can create bias in standard statistical techniques used to identify causal effects. Having established that rigorous evidence of additionality may continue to elude us, we discuss circumstantial evidence that would increase confidence that additionality is present, and propose a probabilistic approach to additionality.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Carter & Nicolas Van de Sijpe & Raphael Calel, 2018. "The Elusive Quest for Additionality," Working Papers 495, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:495
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    5. McHugh, Christopher A., 2023. "Competitive conditions in development finance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Chiara Broccolini & Giulia Lotti & Alessandro Maffioli & Andrea F Presbitero & Rodolfo Stucchi, 2021. "Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 521-543.
    7. Filewod, Ben & McCarney, Geoff, 2023. "Avoiding leakage from nature-based offsets by design," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117927, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Lea Marchal & Claire Naiditch & Betul Simsek, 2022. "How Foreign Aid Affects Migration: Quantifying Transmission Channels," EGEIWP 02-2022, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Jan 2023.
    9. Tanja Havemann & Christine Negra & Fred Werneck, 2020. "Blended finance for agriculture: exploring the constraints and possibilities of combining financial instruments for sustainable transitions," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 37(4), pages 1281-1292, December.
    10. Gurara, Daniel & Presbitero, Andrea & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2020. "Borrowing costs and the role of multilateral development banks: Evidence from cross-border syndicated bank lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Swinkels, Laurens, 2024. "Trading carbon credit tokens on the blockchain," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 720-733.
    12. Küblböck, Karin & Grohs, Hannes, 2019. "Blended finance and its potential for development cooperation," Briefing Papers 21, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    13. Briera, Thibault & Lefèvre, Julien, 2024. "Reducing the cost of capital through international climate finance to accelerate the renewable energy transition in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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