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La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir des titres publics français

Author

Listed:
  • Jondeau, E.
  • Ricart, R.
Abstract
This paper focuses on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure on long-term government bonds. Standard tests (based on the relationships between the change in the long-term rate and the spread and between the change in the short-term rate and the spread) lead to a puzzle close to the one obtained by Campbell and Shiller (1991) using US data. An approach based on stationarity of excess returns and error-correction models gives more details on these results: the expectations hypothesis is widely accepted when holding return is considered whereas it is systematically rejected when rollover return is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1997. "La théorie des anticipations de la structure par terme : test à partir des titres publics français," Working papers 45, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:45
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Rautureau, 2004. "Modèles à changement de régime et test de la théorie des anticipations rationnelles de la structure par terme des taux dintérêt en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 117-129.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure of interest rates ; Expectations hypothesis ; Cointegration ; Error-correction model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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