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Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles

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  • Luis Fernando Melo
  • Martha Misas A.
Abstract
En este documento se presenta evidencia de cambios estructurales, a finales de la década de los noventa, en las relaciones económicas planteadas en los modelos uniecuacionales de inflación en Colombia.Hecho que afecta la inferencia y los pronósticos obtenidos a través de uso de técnicas clásicas de estimación. La metodología de estimación de mínimos cuadrados flexibles (Kabala y Tesfatsion 1989, 1990), propuesta en esta investigación, permite incorporar tales cambios superando los problemas asociados a las metodologías tradicionales. Los pronósticos obtenidos a partir de esta metodología son superiores, en sentido de menor error mínimo cuadrático, a aquellos obtenidos a través de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., 2004. "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:283
    DOI: 10.32468/be.283
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    1. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas, 1998. "Análisis del comportamiento de la inflación trimestral en Colombia bajo cambios de régimen: Una evidencia a través del modelo "Switching" de Hamilton," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, November.
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    4. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Pablo Querubín Borrero, 2002. "La inflación en Colombia: una aproximación desde las redes neuronales," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 20(41-42), pages 143-214, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2005. "Medidas de Riesgo, Características y Técnicas de Medición: Una Aplicación del VAR y el ES a la Tasa Interbancaria de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 343, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3246, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008 [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Héctor Mauricio Nunez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    5. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Melo, Luis F. & Loaiza, Rubén A. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2016. "Bayesian combination for inflation forecasts: The effects of a prior based on central banks’ estimates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 387-397.
    7. Carlos A. Arango A., 2004. "La Demanda De Especies Monetarias En Colombia: Estructura Y Pronóstico," Borradores de Economia 2964, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velnadia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, 2007. "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 4247, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Héctor M. Núñez Amortegui, 2004. "Combinación de pronósticos de la inflación en presencia de cambios estructurales," Borradores de Economia 2153, Banco de la Republica.
    10. Óscar A. Alfonso R. & Carlos E. Alonso M., 2016. "Alimentación Para Las Metrópolis Colombianas. Fragilidad Territorial, Vulnerabilidad A Las Anomalías Del Clima Y Circulación De Agroalimentos," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Economía, edition 1, number 73, August.
    11. Anne Clerval, 2016. "París contra el pueblo. La gentrificación de la capital," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Economía, edition 1, number 74, August.

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