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Government Borrowing and Crowding Out

Author

Listed:
  • Yasin Kürşat Önder
  • Maria Alejandra Ruiz-Sanchez
  • Sara Restrepo-Tamayo
  • Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas
Abstract
We investigate the impact of fiscal expansions on firm investment by exploiting firms that have multiple banking relationships. Further, we conduct a localized RDD approach and compare the lending behavior of banks that barely met and missed the criteria of being a primary dealer, as well as barely winners and losers at government auctions. Our results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in banks’ bonds-to-assets ratio decreases loans by up to 0.4%, which leads to significant declines in firm investment, profits and wages. Our findings are grounded in a quantitative model with financial and real sectors with which we undertake a welfare analysis and compute the cost of government borrowing on the overall economy. **** RESUMEN: Es este estudio investigamos el impacto que tiene el gasto fiscal sobre la inversión, enfocándonos en firmas colombianas que han tenido múltiples relaciones bancarias. Además, realizamos un enfoque localizado de regresión discontinua en el cual comparamos el comportamiento crediticio de bancos que apenas cumplieron y no cumplieron con los criterios para ser un creador de mercado, así como bancos que apenas ganaron y perdieron en las subastas de TES en el mercado primario. Nuestros resultados indican que un aumento de 1 punto porcentual en la razón de bonos sobre activos de los bancos reduce los créditos hasta en un 0,4%, lo que conduce a caídas significativas en la inversión de las empresas, las ganancias y los salarios. Racionalizamos nuestros hallazgos en un modelo cuantitativo con sectores financieros y reales, y con el que realizamos un análisis de bienestar y también calculamos el costo del endeudamiento público en la economía.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasin Kürşat Önder & Maria Alejandra Ruiz-Sanchez & Sara Restrepo-Tamayo & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2021. "Government Borrowing and Crowding Out," Borradores de Economia 1182, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1182
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1182
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasin Kür¸sat Önder & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Jose Villegas, 2023. "Debt Moratorium: Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 1253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Isha Agarwal & David Jaume & Everardo Tellez de la Vega & Martin Tobal, 2024. "Differential Crowding Out Effects of Government Loans and Bonds: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy," Working Papers 314, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multipliers; regression discontinuity design; crowding-out channel; Regresión Discontinua; multiplicador fiscal; crowding-out;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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