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Investment, Current Account, and the Long Swings of Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Hian Teck Hoon

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Margarita Katsimi

    (Athens University of Economics and Business)

  • Gylfi Zoega

    (University of Iceland; Birkbeck, University of London)

Abstract
We estimate the relationship between investment and unemployment over the time period 1960-2015 in 20 OECD countries. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment – with no effect of investment on unemployment – we find that over our sample period covering more than five decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: when investment fell, unemployment increased. When the time period is broken down into two sub-periods to take account of the Great Recession, we find that the estimated coefficient of investment is slightly smaller when the period 2001-2015 is added to the 1960-2000 period. We also find a positive effect of the current account surplus on unemployment that very likely works through investment. A non-monetary model shows how an increase in policy uncertainty that sharply contracts investment and raises unemployment can lead to an increase in current account surplus.

Suggested Citation

  • Hian Teck Hoon & Margarita Katsimi & Gylfi Zoega, 2018. "Investment, Current Account, and the Long Swings of Unemployment," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1810, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1810
    as

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    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/26846
    File Function: First version, 2018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long swings of unemployment; investment; current account; Great Recession.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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