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Climate change, Inequality and Human Migration

Author

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  • Michal BURZYNSKI
  • Christoph DEUSTER
  • Frédéric DOCQUIER
  • Jaime DE MELO
Abstract
This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world's countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to high-latitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20% of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal BURZYNSKI & Christoph DEUSTER & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Jaime DE MELO, 2019. "Climate change, Inequality and Human Migration," Working Paper e357047f-8d6d-4a17-9022-7, Agence française de développement.
    • Handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10273
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    2. Marco Letta & Pierluigi Montalbano & Adriana Paolantonio, 2024. "Climate Immobility Traps: A Household-Level Test," Papers 2403.09470, arXiv.org.
    3. Kovács, Olivér, 2020. "Gazellák az iparpolitika tükrében, II [Gazelles and industrial policy, Part II]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 181-205.
    4. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    5. Marina Murat, 2020. "Emigration and development. What are the links?," Department of Economics (DEMB) 0181, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Department of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    6. Braun, Marius, 2022. "A Real-Options Analysis of Climate Change and International Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264006, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    8. Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Milusheva, Sveta & Reichert, Arndt R. & Reitmann, Ann-Kristin, 2024. "Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Thu Hien Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2021. "Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 417-449, May.
    10. Bruno Conte & Klaus Desmet & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2021. "Local sectoral specialization in a warming world," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 493-530.
    11. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2019. "Climate Change, Migration and Voice - An Explanation for the Immobility Paradox," DEM Discussion Paper Series 19-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
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    13. Marchetta, Francesca & Sahn, David E. & Tiberti, Luca & Dufour, Johany, 2021. "Heterogeneity in Migration Responses to Climate Shocks: Evidence from Madagascar," IZA Discussion Papers 14052, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Woitek, Ulrich, 2020. "The irreversible welfare cost of climate anomalies. Evidence from Japan (1872-1917)," Discussion Paper Series 704, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    16. Cassin, Lesly & Melindi-Ghidi, Paolo & Prieur, Fabien, 2022. "Confronting climate change: Adaptation vs. migration in Small Island Developing States," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Bianca Balsimelli Ghelli & Elton Bequiraj & Marilena Giannetti, 2022. "The impact of corruption on migration flows: evidence from Sub Saharan African countries," Working Papers in Public Economics 232, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    18. Camilo Bohorquez-Penuela & Andrea Otero-Cortes, 2020. "Blame it on the Rain: The Effects of Weather Shocks on Formal Rural Employment in Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 292, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    19. Zhang, Jingfang & Malikov, Emir & Miao, Ruiqing, 2024. "Distributional effects of the increasing heat incidence on labor productivity," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2023. "Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    21. Marina Murat, 2020. "Emigration and development. What are the links?," Department of Economics 0181, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    22. Henri Casella & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Africa under a warming climate: The role of trade towards building resilient adaptation in agriculture," Working Papers hal-03937172, HAL.
    23. Burzyński, Michał & Docquier, Frédéric & Scheewel, Hendrik, 2021. "The geography of climate migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 345-381, September.
    24. Feyen,Erik H.B. & Utz,Robert Johann & Zuccardi Huertas,Igor Esteban & Bogdan,Olena & Moon,Jisung, 2020. "Macro-Financial Aspects of Climate Change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9109, The World Bank.
    25. Marius Braun, 2021. "A Real-Options Analysis of Climate Change and International Migration," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202138, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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