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Identification in Nonparametric Models for Dynamic Treatment Effects

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  • Sukjin Han
Abstract
This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in each period, had a particular treatment sequence been assigned. The identification of this quantity allows us to identify the average treatment effects (ATE's) and the ATE's on transitions, as well as the optimal treatment regimes, namely, the regimes that maximize the (weighted) sum of the average potential outcomes, possibly less the cost of the treatments. The main contribution of this paper is to relax the sequential randomization assumption widely used in the biostatistics literature by introducing a flexible choice-theoretic framework for a sequence of endogenous treatments. We show that the parameters of interest are identified under each period's two-way exclusion restriction, i.e., with instruments excluded from the outcome-determining process and other exogenous variables excluded from the treatment-selection process. We also consider partial identification in the case where the latter variables are not available. Lastly, we extend our results to a setting where treatments do not appear in every period.

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  • Sukjin Han, 2018. "Identification in Nonparametric Models for Dynamic Treatment Effects," Papers 1805.09397, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1805.09397
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Paul, Marie, 2023. "The effects of training incidence and planned training duration on labor market transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 256-279.
    2. Juliano Assunção & Robert McMillan & Joshua Murphy & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest," NBER Working Papers 25636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michelle Marcus & Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2021. "The Role of Parallel Trends in Event Study Settings: An Application to Environmental Economics," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 235-275.
    4. Pedro Picchetti, 2023. "Identification in Endogenous Sequential Treatment Regimes," Papers 2311.18555, arXiv.org.
    5. Balat, Jorge F. & Han, Sukjin, 2023. "Multiple treatments with strategic substitutes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 732-757.
    6. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
    7. Hervé Cardot & Antonio Musolesi, 2021. "Zero-inflated regression for unobserved effects panel data models and difference-in-differences estimation," SEEDS Working Papers 1121, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Dec 2021.
    8. Iavor Bojinov & Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2021. "Panel experiments and dynamic causal effects: A finite population perspective," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1171-1196, November.
    9. Ravi B. Sojitra & Vasilis Syrgkanis, 2024. "Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects," Papers 2405.01463, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    10. Han, Sukjin & Yang, Shenshen, 2024. "A computational approach to identification of treatment effects for policy evaluation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    11. Juliano Assuncao & Robert McMillan & Joshua Murphy & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Targeting in the Amazon Rainforest," Working Papers tecipa-631, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    12. Kyunghoon Ban & D'esir'e K'edagni, 2024. "$\texttt{rdid}$ and $\texttt{rdidstag}$: Stata commands for robust difference-in-differences," Papers 2410.05212, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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