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Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

Author

Listed:
  • Eleonora Granziera
  • Hyungsik Roger Moon
  • Frank Schorfheide
Abstract
There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct pointwise coverage bands for impulse responses of sign-restricted SVARs are justified only from a Bayesian perspective. This paper demonstrates how to formulate the inference problem for sign-restricted SVARs within a moment-inequality framework. In particular, it develops methods of constructing confidence bands for impulse response functions of sign-restricted SVARs that are valid from a frequentist perspective. The paper also provides a comparison of frequentist and Bayesian coverage bands in the context of an empirical application - the former can be substantially wider than the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleonora Granziera & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2017. "Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions," Papers 1709.10196, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1709.10196
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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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