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Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall-Walras Disequilibrium

Author

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  • Sorin Solomon

    (Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University)

  • Natasa Golo

    (Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University)

Abstract
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions propagating across these links. The global parameter in the top-bottom, bottom-up feedback loop is the interest rate. Before the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Loans Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameter representing the individual firms micro-states is the quantity of loans. After the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Crisis Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameters are the number of ponzi units / quantity of failures, defaults. We represent the top-bottom, bottom-up interactions on a plot similar to the Marshal-Walras diagram for quantity-price market equilibrium (where the interest rate is the analog of the price). The Minsky instability is then simply emerging as a consequence of the fixed point (the intersection of the supply and demand curves) being unstable (repulsive). In the presence of network effects, one obtains more than one fixed point and a few dynamic regimes (phases). We describe them and their implications for understanding, predicting and steering economic instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sorin Solomon & Natasa Golo, 2014. "Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall-Walras Disequilibrium," Papers 1402.0176, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.0176
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamil Fortuna & Janusz Szwabi'nski, 2023. "The Unified Framework for Modelling Credit Cycles with Marshall-Walras Price Formation Process And Systemic Risk Assessment," Papers 2305.06337, arXiv.org.
    2. Butzbach Olivier & von Mettenheim Kurt E., 2015. "Alternative Banking and Theory," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 105-171, July.
    3. Sorin Solomon & Nataša Golo, 2015. "Microeconomic structure determines macroeconomic dynamics: Aoki defeats the representative agent," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 5-30, April.
    4. Kolumbus, Yoav & Solomon, Sorin, 2021. "On the influence maximization problem and the percolation phase transition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 573(C).
    5. Natasa Golo & Guy Kelman & David S. Bree & Leanne Usher & Marco Lamieri & Sorin Solomon, 2015. "Many-to-one contagion of economic growth rate across trade credit network of firms," Papers 1506.01734, arXiv.org.
    6. Natasa Golo & David S. Bree & Guy Kelman & Leanne Usher & Marco Lamieri & Sorin Solomon, 2015. "Too dynamic to fail. Empirical support for an autocatalytic model of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis," Papers 1506.07582, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.

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