(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anp/en2016/40.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants Of The Real Exchange Rate In The Long-Run For Developing And Emerging Countries: A Theoretical And Empirical Approach

Author

Listed:
  • LÚCIO OTÁVIO SEIXAS BARBOSA
  • FREDERICO GONZAGA JAYME JUNIOR
Abstract
This paper presents a new framework for the determinants of real exchange in the long-run in developing and emerging countries (DECs). We assume that currencies should be regarded as an asset. In consequence, dealers in the foreign exchange market play a crucial role on its dynamics. To set our model, we connect the model developed by Kaltenbrunner, which is grounded on chapter 17 of the General Theory, with productivity’s differential effect. By doing so, it states that even short-run factors and monetary variables affect the long-run real exchange rate. Moreover, it points out that the hierarchical nature of the international monetary system is crucial to understand exchange rate movements in DECs. Besides presenting such theoretical approach, our contribution is to test it empirically for 45 DECs from 1990 to 2008 by applying econometric techniques appropriate for panel data. We use a new data-set, which comprises, among other variables, foreign portfolio flow, interest rate differential, external vulnerability measures, and international liquidity, on annual basis. The empirical results endorse this framework. Overall, it shows the primacy of financial factors as determinants of the long-run real exchange rate and points to the endogenous and self-perpetuating nature of international monetary system hierarchy.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Lúcio Otávio Seixas Barbosa & Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Junior, 2018. "Determinants Of The Real Exchange Rate In The Long-Run For Developing And Emerging Countries: A Theoretical And Empirical Approach," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 40, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2016:40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.anpec.org.br/encontro/2016/submissao/files_I/i4-195d419982137d934d96bf0879758192.docx
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho, 1992. "Mr Keynes And The Post Keynesians," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 79.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Okot, Anjelo & Kaltenbrunner, Annina & Perez Ruiz, Daniel, 2022. "Determinants of the exchange rate, its volatility and currency crash risk in Africa's low and lower middle-income countries," EIB Working Papers 2022/12, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    2. Piotr Dybka, 2020. "One model or many? Exchange rates determinants and their predictive capabilities," KAE Working Papers 2020-053, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    3. David Alaminos & M. Belén Salas & Manuel Á. Fernández-Gámez, 2023. "Quantum Monte Carlo simulations for estimating FOREX markets: a speculative attacks experience," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    5. Olk, Christopher, 2023. "Liquidity premia: the PPP puzzle's missing piece?," SocArXiv exnf6, Center for Open Science.
    6. Mahraddika, Wishnu, 2020. "Real exchange rate misalignments in developing countries: The role of exchange rate flexibility and capital account openness," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-24.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Studart, Rogério, 2005. "The State, the markets and development financing," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    2. Marcelo de Oliveira Passos & José Luís Oreiro, 2008. "A post Keynesian macrodynamic simulation model for an open economy," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211235250, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. José Luís Oreiro, 2006. "Capital mobility, real exchange rate appreciation, and asset price bubbles in emerging economies: a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model for a small open economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 317-344, January.
    4. Ivan V. Rozmainsky, 2013. "A Simple Post Keynesian Model Of Investor Myopia And Economic Growth," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 9(3), pages 45-56.
    5. Cimoli, Mario & Correa, Nelson & Katz, Jorge & Studart, Rogério, 2003. "Institutional requirements for market-led development in Latin America," Series Históricas 7792, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Eduardo F Bastian & Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2024. "Inflation regimes and hyperinflation: a Post-Keynesian/structuralist typology," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 48(4), pages 681-708.
    7. Eduardo F. Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2015. "A simple analytical model of the adverse real effects of inflation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 637-665, November.
    8. Jose Luis Oreiro & Kalinka Martins da Silva, 2022. "Structuralist Development Macroeconomics and New Developmentalism: Theoretical Foundations and Recent Developments," Working Papers PKWP2204, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    9. David Dequech, 2000. "Asset Choice, Liquidity Preference, and Rationality under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 159-176, March.
    10. Fernando J. Cardim De Carvalho, 1995. "The Independence of Central Banks: A Critical Assessment of the Arguments," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 159-175, December.
    11. Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho, 2016. "On the nature and role of financial systems in Keynes’s entrepreneurial economies," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 287-307, July.
    12. Fernando Ferrari-Filho & Octavio Augusto Camargo Conceição, 2005. "The Concept of Uncertainty in Post Keynesian Theory and in Institutional Economics," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 579-594, September.
    13. Claudio H. dos Santos & Gennaro Zezza, 2004. "A Post-Keynesian Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Growth Model: Preliminary Results," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_402, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. Philip Arestis & Marco Flávio Cunha Resende & Douglas Alcântara Alencar & Lúcio Otávio Seixas Barbosa & Gustavo Figueiredo Campolina Diniz, 2017. "The finance-investment and saving-funding circuit in the closed and open economies with government," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 832-845, November.
    15. Sunanda Sen, 2018. "Investment Decisions under Uncertainty," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_918, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Eckhard Hein & Carsten Ochsen, 2003. "Regimes of Interest Rates, Income Shares, Savings and Investment: A Kaleckian Model and Empirical Estimations for some Advanced OECD Economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 404-433, November.
    17. Rogério Studart, 1995. "The Efficiency of Financial Systems, Liberalization, and Economic Development," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 269-292, December.
    18. Gontijo, Cláudio, 2000. "On the Criticism to the Classical Method," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 54(1), January.
    19. Alexandre Manir Figueiredo Sarquis & José Luis Oreiro, 2011. "A Stock and FlowConsistent Post Keynesian Model for an Open Economy with ImportedIntermediary Inputs and Ex-Ante Portfolio Allocation," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 53, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva & Cláudio Hamílton dos Santos, 2008. "Peering over the edge of the short period? The Keynesian Roots of Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807151456380, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anp:en2016:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Zadra Armond (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/anpecea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.