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A Spatial Economic Model And Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Population Dynamics In Brazilian Mcas

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  • DIEGO FIRMINO COSTA DA SILVA
  • J. PAUL ELHORST
  • RAUL DA MOTA SILVEIRA NETO
Abstract
To extend existing population growth models, this article proposes a theoretical setting including spatial interaction effects. Using data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian Minimum Comparable Areas (MCA) over the period 1970-2010, this extension is tested by estimating a dynamic spatial panel model. The authors also compare the performance of a wide range of potential neighborhood matrices using Bayesian posterior model probabilities. Six of the thirteen determinants of population growth considered produce significant spatial interaction effects. Moreover, five produce significant long-term spatial spillover effects; a mathematical analysis reveals the strength of this result, which requires more than a single parameter. Treating areas as independent entities, as many previous population growth studies have done, underestimates the impact of various policy measures.
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Suggested Citation

  • Diego Firmino Costa Da Silva & J. Paul Elhorst & Raul Da Mota Silveira Neto, 2016. "A Spatial Economic Model And Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Population Dynamics In Brazilian Mcas," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 158, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2014:158
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    2. Jerome Segura III, 2017. "The effect of state and local taxes on economic growth: A spatial dynamic panel approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 627-645, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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