Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/amu/wpaper/2009-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Statistical prediction of the outcome of a noncooperative game

Author

Listed:
  • James W. Bono
  • David H. Wolpert
Abstract
Conventionally, game theory predicts that the mixed strategy profile of players in a noncooperative game will satisfy some equilibrium concept. Relative probabil- ities of the strategy profiles satisfying the concept are unspecified, and all strategies not satisfying it are implicitly assigned probability zero. As an alternative, we re- cast the prediction problem of game theory as statistically estimating the strategy profile, from "data" that consists of the game specification. This replaces the focus of game theory, on specifying a set of "equilibrium" mixed strategies, with a new focus, on specifying a probability density over all mixed strategies. We explore a Bayesian version of such a Predictive Game Theory (PGT). We show that for some games the peaks of the posterior over strategy profiles approximate quantal response equilibria. We also show how PGT provides a best single prediction for any noncooperative game, i.e., a universal refinement. We also show how regula- tors can use PGT to make optimal decisions in situations where conventional game theory cannot provide advice.

Suggested Citation

  • James W. Bono & David H. Wolpert, 2009. "Statistical prediction of the outcome of a noncooperative game," Working Papers 2009-20, American University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2009-20
    DOI: 10.17606/ztj8-af39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.17606/ztj8-af39
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17606/ztj8-af39?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra, 2006. "New Evidence on the Gains from Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(4), pages 617-641, December.
    2. Alejandro Castañeda Sabido & David Mulato, 2006. "Market Structure: Concentration and Imports as Determinants of Industry Margins," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 21(2), pages 177-202.
    3. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
    4. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Londono, Juan Luis & Szekely, Miguel, 1999. "Income distribution, factor endowments, and trade openness," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-101, June.
    5. Chiquiar, Daniel, 2008. "Globalization, regional wage differentials and the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 70-93, January.
    6. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 1992. "North American Free Trade: Issues and Recommendations," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 71, January.
    7. William Maloney & Daniel Lederman & Luis Servén, 2005. "Lessons from NAFTA: For Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59478, February.
    8. Robert C. Feenstra & Hiau Looi Kee, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation and Export Variety: A Comparison of Mexico and China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 5-21, January.
    9. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
    10. Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
    11. Leamer, Edward E, 1980. "The Leontief Paradox, Reconsidered," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 495-503, June.
    12. repec:idb:brikps:59478 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Feenstra, Robert C. & Hanson, Gordon H., 1997. "Foreign direct investment and relative wages: Evidence from Mexico's maquiladoras," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 371-393, May.
    14. Ozlem Onaran, 2009. "Wage share, globalization and crisis: the case of the manufacturing industry in Korea, Mexico and Turkey," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 113-134.
    15. Moreno-Brid, Juan Carlos & Ros, Jaime, 2009. "Development and Growth in the Mexican Economy: An Historical Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195371161.
    16. Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys, 2006. "Mexico : two decades of the evolution of education and inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3919, The World Bank.
    17. Harrison, Ann & Hanson, Gordon, 1999. "Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining puzzles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 125-154, June.
    18. Cragg, Michael Ian & Epelbaum, Mario, 1996. "Why has wage dispersion grown in Mexico? Is it the incidence of reforms or the growing demand for skills?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 99-116, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James Costain & Anton Nakov, 2019. "Logit Price Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 43-78, February.
    2. James Costain, 2017. "Costly decisions and sequential bargaining," Working Papers 1729, Banco de España.
    3. Ellis Scharfenaker, 2015. "A Quantal Response Model of Firm Competition," Working Papers 1507, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Comercio, Empleo y Distribución: Efectos de la Integración Regional y Global," Working Papers 2009-21, American University, Department of Economics.
    2. Robert A. Blecker & Gerardo Esquivel, 2010. "NAFTA, Trade and Development (Robert A. Blecker and Gerardo Esquivel)," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(4), pages 17-30, December.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-82, March.
    4. Robbins, Donald J., 2003. "The impact of trade liberalization upon inequality in developing countries : a review of theory and evidence," ILO Working Papers 993650553402676, International Labour Organization.
    5. Robert A. Blecker & Gerardo Esquivel, 2010. "NAFTA, Trade and Development (Robert A. Blecker and Gerardo Esquivel)," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 17-30, December.
    6. Nursel AYDINER‐AVSAR & ÖZlem ONARAN, 2010. "The Determinants Of Employment: A Sectoral Analysis For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 48(2), pages 203-231, June.
    7. Mehta, Aashish & Mohr, Belinda Acuña, 2012. "Economic Liberalization and Rising College Premiums in Mexico: A Reinterpretation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1908-1920.
    8. Paolo Giordano & Kun Li, 2012. "An Updated Assessment of the Trade and Poverty Nexus in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 79119, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Robert A. Blecker & Gerardo Esquivel, 2009. "NAFTA, Trade, and Development," Working Papers 2009-24, American University, Department of Economics.
    10. Yoshimichi Murakami, 2018. "Globalization and Income Inequality in Latin America: A Review of Theoretical Developments and Recent Evidence," Discussion Paper Series DP2018-16, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Aug 2018.
    11. repec:ilo:ilowps:365055 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chiquiar, Daniel & Covarrubias, Enrique & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2016. "Labor market consequences of trade openness and competition in foreign markets," Conference papers 332760, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Julien Gourdon, 2011. "Wage inequality in developing countries: South–South trade matters," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 58(4), pages 359-383, December.
    14. Zouhair Mrabet, 2012. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Labor Market of Developing Countries: What can Literature tell us?," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(6), pages 307-318.
    15. Robert A. Blecker, 2015. "Integration, Productivity, and Inclusion in Mexico: A Macro Perspective," Working Papers 2015-06, American University, Department of Economics.
    16. Mah, Jai S., 2003. "A note on globalization and income distribution--the case of Korea, 1975-1995," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 157-164, February.
    17. Rubiana Chamarbagwala & Gunjan Sharma, 2008. "Industrial Deregulation, Skill Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in India," Caepr Working Papers 2008-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    18. Francisco Benita, 2014. "A Cohort Analysis of the College Premium in Mexico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 51(1), pages 147-178, May.
    19. Branko Milanovic & Lyn Squire, 2007. "Does Tariff Liberalization Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 143-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Attanasio, Orazio & Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Pavcnik, Nina, 2004. "Trade reforms and wage inequality in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 331-366, August.
    21. Chamarbagwala, Rubiana & Sharma, Gunjan, 2011. "Industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 314-336, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantal Response Equilibrium; Bayesian Statistics; Entropic prior; Maximum entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:2009-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Meal (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.