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Constrained Efficient Borrowing with Sovereign Default Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo

    (University of Western Ontario)

  • Leonardo Martinez

    (IMF)

  • Francisco Roch

    (IMF)

Abstract
Using a quantitative sovereign default model, we characterize constrained efficient borrowing by a Ramsey government that commits to income-history-contingent borrowing paths taking as given ex-post optimal future default decisions. The Ramsey government improves upon the Markov government because it internalizes the effects of borrowing decisions in period t on borrowing opportunities prior to t. We show the effect of borrowing decisions in t on utility flows prior to t can be encapsulated by two single dimensional variables. Relative to a Markov government, the Ramsey government distorts borrowing decisions more when bond prices are more sensitive to borrowing, and changes in bond prices have a larger effect on past utility. In a quantitative exercise, more than 80% of the default risk is eliminated by a Ramsey government, without decreasing borrowing. The Ramsey government also has a higher probability of completing a successful deleveraging (without defaulting), while smoothing out the fiscal consolidation.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Constrained Efficient Borrowing with Sovereign Default Risk," Working Papers 126, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:126
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    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/126.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan C. Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2020. "Sovereign Debt Standstills," NBER Working Papers 28292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Roch, Francisco, 2022. "Numerical fiscal rules for economic unions: The role of sovereign spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2024. "Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1096, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. de Ferra, Sergio & Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Sovereign risk matters: Endogenous default risk and the time-varying volatility of interest rate spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Yasin Kürsat Önder & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Sovereign Cocos," Working Papers 139, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Kursat Onder & Mr. Francisco Roch, 2022. "Sovereign Cocos," IMF Working Papers 2022/078, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Default; Long-term Debt; Time Inconsistency; Dbt Dilution; Deleveraging; Austerity; Debt Management; Fiscal Rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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