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The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections

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Abstract
In 2002, the Israeli government decided to build a wall inside the occupied West Bank. The wall had a marked effect on the access to land and water resources as well as to the Israeli labour market. It is difficult to include the effect of the wall in an econometric model ex- plaining poverty dynamics as the wall was built in the richer region of the West Bank. So a diff-in-diff strategy is needed. Using a Bayesian approach, we treat our two-period repeated cross-section data set as an incomplete data problem, explaining the income-to-needs ratio as a function of time invariant exogenous variables. This allows us to provide inference results on poverty dynamics. We then build a conditional regression model including a wall variable and state dependence to see how the wall modified the initial results on poverty dynamics. We find that the wall has increased the probability of poverty persistence by 58 percentage points and the probability of poverty entry by 18 percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Tareq Sadeq & Michel Lubrano, 2018. "The Wall’s Impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics Using Repeated Cross-Sections," AMSE Working Papers 1836, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1836
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    Cited by:

    1. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2021. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Working Papers halshs-03234072, HAL.
    2. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print halshs-04135764, HAL.
    3. Michel Lubrano & Zhou Xun, 2023. "The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement," Post-Print hal-04347292, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; pseudo panels; data augmentation; walls; poverty dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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