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Term Structure of Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Markets - Evidence from Option Data

Author

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  • Koekebakker, Steen
  • Lien, Gudbrand D.
Abstract
Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence that the volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time and time to maturity. This paper extends Bates (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by including both seasonal and maturity effects in volatility. An in-sample fit to market option prices on wheat futures shows that our model outperforms previous models considered in the literature. A numerical example illustrates the economic significance of our results for option valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Koekebakker, Steen & Lien, Gudbrand D., 2002. "Term Structure of Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Markets - Evidence from Option Data," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24874, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae02:24874
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.24874
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David S. Bates, "undated". "Testing Option Pricing Models," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Hall, Joyce A. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Distribution of Futures Prices: A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 105-116, March.
    3. Bates, David S, 1991. "The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    4. Rutledge, D J S, 1976. "A Note on the Variability of Futures Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 118-120, February.
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    9. Robert J. Myers & Steven D. Hanson, 1993. "Pricing Commodity Options when the Underlying Futures Price Exhibits Time-Varying Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 121-130.
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