Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea98/20933.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • McKenzie, Andrew M.
  • Holt, Matthew T.
Abstract
This paper tests for both long run and short run market efficiency and unbiasedness in five agricultural futures markets. The possible existence of constant and time varying risk premia are taken into account using cointegration procedures and error correction models within a GARCH framework.

Suggested Citation

  • McKenzie, Andrew M. & Holt, Matthew T., 1998. "Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20933, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea98:20933
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20933
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/20933/files/spmcke01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.20933?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Pauly, Peter, 1988. "Endogenous risk in a portfolio-balance rational-expectations model of the Deutschemark-Dollar rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 27-53, January.
    2. Hall, S G, 1991. "The Effect of Varying Length VAR Models on the Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Cointegrating Vectors," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 317-323, November.
    3. Hakkio, Craig S, 1981. "Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 663-678, October.
    4. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Moosa, Imad A. & Al-Loughani, Nabeel E., 1994. "Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 99-105, April.
    7. Marvin L. Hayenga & Dennis D. Dipietre & J. Marvin Skadberg & Ted C. Schroeder, 1984. "Profitable hedging opportunities and risk premiums for producers in live cattle and live hog futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 141-154, June.
    8. Terry L. Kastens & Ted C. Schroeder, 1995. "A trading simulation test for weak‐form efficiency in live cattle futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 649-675, September.
    9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    10. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
    11. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
    12. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
    13. Roger A. Fujihara & Mbodja Mougoué, 1997. "Linear dependence, nonlinear dependence and petroleum futures market efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 75-99, February.
    14. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 308-331.
    15. Emmett Elam & Bruce L. Dixon, 1988. "Examining the validity of a test of futures market efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 365-372, June.
    16. Peel, David A & Speight, Alan E H, 1997. "Non-linearities in East European Black-Market Exchange Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 39-57, January.
    17. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    18. Larry Martin & Philip Garcia, 1981. "The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 209-215.
    19. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin & Jason E. Ropp & Anthony J. Sberna, 1999. "A reappraisal of the forecasting performance of corn and soybean new crop futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 603-618, August.
    20. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996. "Time‐varying risk premia in the foreign currency futures basis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(7), pages 735-755, October.
    21. William G. Tomek & Robert J. Myers, 1993. "Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 181-202.
    22. Tetteh A. Kofi, 1973. "A Framework for Comparing the Efficiency of Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(4_Part_1), pages 584-594.
    23. Sabuhoro, Jean Bosco & Larue, Bruno, 1997. "The market efficiency hypothesis: The case of coffee and cocoa futures," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 171-184, August.
    24. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
    25. Robert W. Kolb & Gerald D. Gay, 1983. "The performance of live cattle futures as predictors of subsequent spot prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 55-63, March.
    26. Stacie Beck, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 115-132.
    27. Raymond M. Leuthold & Peter A. Hartmann, 1979. "A Semi-Strong Form Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Hog Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 482-489.
    28. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    29. Beck, Stacie E, 1993. "A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 149-168, February.
    30. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-461, October.
    31. Barry K. Goodwin & Randy Schnepf, 2000. "Determinants of endogenous price risk in corn and wheat futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 753-774, September.
    32. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    33. Hayenga, Marvin L. & DiPietre, Dennis D. & Skadberg, J. Marvin & Schroeder, Ted C., 1984. "Profit Opportunities and Risk Premiums for Producers in Live Cattle and Live Hog Futures Markets," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11307, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    34. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
    35. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    36. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 39-54, April.
    37. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    38. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
    39. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
    40. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    41. Anthony Mananyi & John J. Struthers, 1997. "Cocoa market efficiency: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 141-151, September.
    42. Raymond M. Leuthold, 1974. "The Price Performance on the Futures Market of a Nonstorable Commodity: Live Beef Cattle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(2), pages 271-279.
    43. William G. Tomek & Roger W. Gray, 1970. "Temporal Relationships Among Prices on Commodity Futures Markets: Their Allocative and Stabilizing Roles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 372-380.
    44. repec:bla:econom:v:65:y:1998:i:258:p:211-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Richard Deaves & Itzhak Krinsky, 1995. "Do futures prices for commodities embody risk premiums?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 637-648, September.
    46. Stacie E. Beck, 1993. "A test of the intertemporal hedging model of the commodities futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 223-236, May.
    47. Jean Bosco Sabuhoro & Bruno Larue, 1997. "The market efficiency hypothesis: the case of coffee and cocoa futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(3), pages 171-184, August.
    48. Baillie, Richard T & Lippens, Robert E & McMahon, Patrick C, 1983. "Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 553-563, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Armah, Stephen E., 2008. "Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6778, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D. R. Agarwal, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Indian Commodity Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 771-789, June.
    3. J. Frank & P. Garcia, 2009. "Time-varying risk premium: further evidence in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 715-725.
    4. Tondel, Fabien & Maynard, Leigh J., 2004. "Is The Thinly-Traded Butter Futures Contract Priced Efficiently?," 2004 Annual Meeting, February 14-18, 2004, Tulsa, Oklahoma 34684, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. He, Dequan & Holt, Matthew T., 2004. "Efficiency Of Forest Commodity Futures Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20344, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas, 2005. "Testing Efficiency Of The Copper Futures Market: New Evidence From London Metal Exchange," Finance 0512010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.
    8. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
    9. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, I.M., 2019. "Testing commodity futures market efficiency under time-varying risk premiums and heteroscedastic prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 92-112.
    10. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    11. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    12. Malini, Nair, 2005. "Arbitrage, Cointegration and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Coffee Futures Traded at the CSCE," MPRA Paper 37857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas, 1996. "ARCH effects and cointegration: Is the foreign exchange market efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 687-697, May.
    14. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    16. Macide Cicek, 2014. "A Cointegration Test for Turkish Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 451-471, April.
    17. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
    18. Tomek, William G., 1996. "Commodity Futures Prices As Forecasts," Working Papers 127901, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    19. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    20. Richard Heaney, 1998. "A Test of the cost‐of‐carry relationship using the London Metal Exchange lead contract," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 177-200, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marketing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea98:20933. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.